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World warned on security

Simon Tisdall

Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan identified as flashpoints.

THE WARS in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West's confrontation with Iran, and efforts to divest North Korea of its nuclear weapons are all approaching crucial turning points that could combine to create a perfect storm of simultaneous international crises, defence experts said on Wednesday.

Launching the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies' (IISS) annual assessment of global security threats, John Chipman, its director general, said: "Many parts of the world are engaged in brutal combat ... Overall, the dangerous triptych of Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran continues to dominate the security agenda as do the wider, iconic problems of terrorism and proliferation."

The warning came as crucial talks on Iran were held in London, Tony Blair and Iraqi Prime minister Nuri al-Maliki pursued a planned troop handover in Iraq, and Taliban attacks on NATO troops in Afghanistan intensified.

Dr. Chipman said the new Iraqi Government faced "fundamental challenges" that could quickly overwhelm its attempts to hold the country together and invite regional intervention.

"It is doubtful that a collective sense of Iraqi nationalism can survive in a context of increasing sectarian violence and the continuing security vacuum. Democracy has exacerbated Iraq's ethnic and religious tensions, with voters largely dividing along Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish lines."

The parliamentary committee charged with amending Iraq's unfinished constitution was unlikely to deliver political compromise but was certain to become the focus of new acrimony, especially among Sunnis.Dr. Chipman warned of a rising Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan aimed at British and NATO troops who are replacing some U.S. forces. "The Taliban are likely to increase their operational tempo — not least because they know that casualties among European NATO states may mobilise domestic opinion against the war."

- Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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