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Iran's tactics pay off in nuclear standoff

Atul Aneja

Washington's willingness to talk directly to Teheran is a significant departure from the past.

IRAN'S SKILLED nuclear diplomacy has forced the United States to think afresh, and opened the door for a sustained round of negotiations with the West that could have far-reaching consequences.

There was a sense of hard-earned success in the Iranian establishment after the European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, concluded his visit to Teheran on June 6. Apart from offering negotiations, Mr. Solana, representing all the five Security Council members and Germany, presented Iran with a full package of incentives.

For the Iranians, the content of the package was of lesser importance. The seeming turnaround in the approach of the Americans and the Europeans towards the crisis revolving around its nuclear programme was the key.

After a gap of two-and-a-half decades, the Americans were showing a willingness to talk directly to Teheran — a significant departure from the past. Not long ago, selective leaks in the media suggested that the American establishment was considering the use of mini-nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilitates. In the lexicon of the Bush administration, Iran was part of an axis of evil — a term that signified Washington's obsession with "regime change" in Teheran.

The state-run Iran Daily noted what it perceived as the real significance of Mr. Solana's visit: "What new proposals known as `nuclear incentives' he [Mr. Solana] brought to convince our statesmen to reverse the nuclear programme is not and should not be very important. The fact that Britain, France, Germany and the neocon enclaves in Washington have set aside their arrogance and recklessness is worthy of notice."

Restrained response

Notwithstanding their gains, the Iranians have been restrained in their response. They have made two key observations that could set the tone for future negotiations. First, they have signalled that the West recognise it no longer holds the initiative in its nuclear diplomacy with Iran. Speaking in Shanghai on the sidelines of the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Mr. Solana's June 6 offer was a "positive step." However, he stressed that Iran would respond to the proposals in "due time."

Secondly, the Iranians have made it clear that the West must learn to treat them with respect. At a recent meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran's representative, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, emphasised that, "in the case of Iran, humiliation and the use of language of threat of referring the nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security Council ... have had serious impact on mutual trust and confidence on parties involved and thus the process of negotiations."

Several factors have played their part in prodding the West to engage Iran differently. Of these, Teheran's capacity to turn the post-invasion situation in Iraq to its advantage is, arguably, the most important. Iran's ability to influence the appointment of key Shia leaders well disposed towards it in top positions after the U.S. invasion has already yielded rich dividends.

Realising that they were bogged down in Iraq and aware of the Iranian influence there, the Americans began seriously to debate approaching Teheran for a bailout. This became evident when the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, sought a dialogue with Iran over Iraq. The Iranians have been lukewarm to these "tactical" overtures. Instead, they have sought a full-spectrum dialogue that could bring about a turnaround in their frosty relationship with the West.

A period of brief turbulence followed the exit of the former Iranian President, Mohammad Khatami, last year. But the Iranian establishment has emerged far more cohesive after Mr. Ahmadinejad assumed office. He belongs to the Abadgaran group that is strongly influential among Revolutionary Guards, the elite defenders of the Iranian revolution. This non-clerical segment, with active military links, now dominates Parliament and exercises considerable influence in the national security establishment.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also appears well disposed towards Mr. Ahmadinejad. With dissonance in the system reduced considerably, the Iranians have been able to coordinate their diplomacy in dealing with the nuclear crisis more effectively than before.

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