NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is expected to grow at 5.9 per cent each year up to 2020 and account for 12.2 per cent of the world economic growth in the next 15 years, according to a survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The survey, sponsored by Cisco Systems covering 1,600 executives from 100 countries, observed that the main growth driver would not be the country's much-touted information technology (IT) sector but agriculture and manufacturing subject to modernisation.

``However, India's much-discussed IT sector accounts for too small a share of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] to be a long-term driver of growth. Much more will depend on the modernisation of the country's agriculture and manufacturing," the survey said.

Projecting India's continued rapid growth as one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the survey said: ``The next 15 years will see significant outpacing by Asia and particularly the powerhouses of India and China of the rest of the world in GDP, wages and consuming power.''

``By 2020, India as a trading nation will record the biggest jump in world ranking — from 24th to 10th. Propelled by fast growth in India and China, Asia will increase its slice of the world's GDP from 35 per cent in 2005 to 43 per cent by 2020 and India's share in the global GDP will rise from 6.2 per cent in 2005 to 8.8 per cent in 2020," the survey said.

While Asia would account for two-thirds of the increase in job growth, India by itself would account for 30 per cent of the net increase in global employment owing to 142 million new jobs, it said.

Largest consumer market

The survey pointed out that global consumer spending would expand at an annual rate of 5.6 per cent to $ 62 trillion by 2020 as compared to $ 27 trillion today.

Although the U.S. would continue to be the largest consumer market, China is slated to emerge as the world's second largest consumer market while India would rival the bigger European markets.

``India's share in world consumer spending will increase from 1.9 per cent in 2005 to 3.1 per cent in 2020," the survey said.

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