NEW DELHI: Scientists at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting have forecast that monsoon activity over the country could pick up after June 29 as there was a possibility of the formation of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days.

Speaking to The Hindu , the scientists said the signals for the formation of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal were very strong. Models showed that the system may form over the west central parts of the Bay and could be in place by June 28.

Classical form

Apart from bringing rain to the east coast, the system, they said, could give a boost to the monsoon current that is presently flowing in from the Arabian Sea side. "By the end of the month, there is a possibility for the monsoon to acquire the classical form, where both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea arms were active simultaneously adding strength to each other," a senior scientist said.

The scientists said another positive feature is that there are indications that a low pressure area may form over the northern parts of the Arabian Sea too in the next five to six days.

The signals were, however, presently very feeble. "We cannot say anything definite about the system right now. We will have to wait for a while. The picture may become clear in a day or two."

This year, the monsoon is yet to acquire the classical form of both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal arms acting in tandem. Consequently, though it has covered the southern and western parts of the country completely, it is yet to reach Central and north India. In the western parts also, it has not penetrated into the interior areas and as a result, the rainfall had been confined to a belt of about 100 km to 150 km along the coast.

The normal date for Bhopal is June 13, that for Varanasi June 15, Allahabad June 17, Lucknow June 18 and Agra June 20. But, the monsoon is yet to reach these areas. As on Sunday, the northern limit of the monsoon ran from Rajkot to Ahmedabad to Nagpur to Raipur to the north-east.

Asked specifically about Delhi, where the scheduled date is June 29, the scientists said the monsoon may not keep the date with the city. It may be delayed by at least four to five days.

"If the low pressure area forms over the west central Bay around June 28 as predicted by the models, Delhi may get its monsoon showers around July 3 or 4. One has to wait and watch," they said.

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