NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department has slightly lowered the expectations of rainfall during the ongoing southwest monsoon season. On Friday it forecast that the rainfall for the country as a whole and for the season in its entirety would be 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus four per cent.

In April, the department said the rainfall for the country as a whole and for the season in its entirety would be 93 per cent of the LPA, plus or minus five per cent.

Speaking to The Hindu here, the officiating Director-General, Bhukan Lal, said the forecast was revised because of the emergence of a slight anomaly in the sea surface temperature over the Central Pacific Ocean region, indicating that there was a slight possibility for development of El Nino conditions.

In the beginning of the year, sea surface temperatures were colder than normal over the region. Consequently, when the forecast was made in April, it was assumed that there might not be a problem of El Nino. But since March the region had warmed up. The latest observations suggested that temperatures were a little above normal.

Even though most of the models across the world were predicting that the abnormality might go up but would remain below the threshold limit of 0.5 degrees Celsius through the entire season, the spread of the forecast indicated uncertainty.

The IMD therefore decided to make a slight downward revision of the forecast. Mr. Lal emphasised that the situation was not serious and that the IMD would keep vigil on the developments.

The new forecast also comes in the background of a not too good performance by the monsoon despite an early onset. According to an IMD release, the rainfall realised for the country as a whole till June 28 was deficient by eight per cent. The shortfall was mainly due to a prolonged hiatus in the advancement of the system for 17 days.

In region-wise forecasts for the season as a whole, the rainfall would be 97 per cent of the LPA for the south peninsula comprising Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar; 90 per cent of the LPA for central India consisting of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, Orissa, Gujarat, and Chhattisgarh; 91 per cent of the LPA for the northwest consisting of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Jammu and Kashmir; and 94 per cent of the LPA for the northeast comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Sikkim. The forecasts are with a model error or plus or minus eight per cent.

The rainfall in the country as a whole for July would be 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent. This could be good news for the agricultural sector, as July is the most important month for farm operations in most parts of the country.

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