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Benazir-Nawaz alliance keeps up the tempo

Nirupama Subramanian

PAKISTAN'S OPPOSITION leaders-in-exile, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, have managed to keep up the tempo that their initial pact in May injected into the country's political scene.

Repeated statements by Ministers that the two are individually in touch with the top echelons of the military regime with the aim of striking a deal have failed to drive a wedge in the new-found partnership between the two arch rivals of Pakistani politics. At least for the moment, they seem very much together.

Their July 2 meeting in London with the other partners in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy appears to have gone off to the satisfaction of all present.

The ARD's biggest constituents are Ms. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and Mr. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), but the 10 other smaller parties in the front also committed themselves to the "charter of democracy" — a document promising sweeping changes in the governance of Pakistan including the subordination of the military to civilian rulers — that the two signed on May 15.

The meeting came at a time when there have been statements from the Government that Pervez Musharraf will be elected to another five-year term as President from the same National and provincial assemblies that controversially endorsed his referendum-backed present term. The latest is from Punjab Chief Minister Pervez Elahi who reiterated this as the Opposition meeting was on in London.

The London meeting called on all democratic forces in Pakistan to "exert pressure" on General Musharraf to resign, to move a no-confidence vote against the regime in the National Assembly, and to campaign for the formation a government of national consensus to hold free, fair, and honest elections "within 90 days."

It also committed the parties to resigning from the Assemblies, in consultation with other Opposition parties, should General Musharraf seek to elect himself from the present Assemblies.

Calling for the repeal of all discriminatory election laws to ensure even playing fields, the Opposition leaders resolved to campaign for the withdrawal of all cases against Ms. Bhutto and to "ensure" her return and Mr. Sharif's to Pakistan, and to resist any attempt by the regime "to prevent or take into custody the popular leadership on their return."

No reaction from Musharraf

There has been no reaction from President Musharraf but Mr. Elahi, who belongs to the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid) has said democracy was "flourishing" under "President General Pervez Musharraf." He reiterated that the "in uniform" President would be elected for another term by the existing electoral college.

Information and Broadcasting Minister Muhammed Ali Durrani said there was no question of the government resigning ahead of time.

Describing the Opposition campaign as containing "nothing important" for the people, he said leaders "living in London" would have no impact on national politics.

Opposition leaders differ. "The importance of the London meeting is that it has crystallised the programme of the ARD in the form of the no-trust vote against the government. That we may not have the numbers to pull it off is not important. But the mere fact that we are prepared to go that far sends out a powerful message of resentment against the government," said Farhatullah Babar, a senior PPP leader and Ms. Bhutto's spokesperson in Islamabad.

While the Bhutto-Sharif combine is busy consolidating itself, other anti-Musharraf voices are also getting louder. The pro-U.S. tilt of the Government, the President's refusal to give up his role as army chief, the military action in Waziristan, the problems in Balochistan, cost of living — every Opposition party has its own grievance.

MMA campaign

The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which in 2002 supported General Musharraf's controversial referendum-backed term, has now begun a campaign against him, with meetings planned in every major city in the next two months. The largest of the six parties in this coalition of the religious Right, the Jamaat-e-Islami, has said it will oppose all moves by General Musharraf to get himself elected for another term. But another MMA party, Jamaat-e-Ulema Islami, is not equally enthusiastic about this.

According to the PPP's Mr. Babar, the ARD programme will put pressure on undecided parties such as the JUI to "make their own choice" — between the democratic forces or the military regime. Plus, it puts pressure on the government to keep watch on possible rebel elements within.

Significance of Rice statement

The Bhutto-Sharif combine got a shot in the arm from the remarks by U.S Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on her recent visit to Pakistan about the world's expectation that President Musharraf would hold free and fair elections in 2007.

The Government was provoked enough to say the matter never came up in Ms. Rice's talks with President Musharraf. But there was no denying that she made statements on democracy at least on two separate occasions during the visit, both times before journalists — once to the press entourage travelling with her to Pakistan and later that day, at a press briefing in Islamabad.

Ms. Rice talked about the importance of "a process next year that results in free and fair elections," and said it was "not just a matter of election day" but also "access to press", and "the freedom to assemble and campaign." This is the closest the U.S. has come to saying it wants General Musharraf to allow Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif to return.

With national and presidential elections not due until end-2007, it is hard to predict where the latest developments will lead. Not taking into account the possibility of deal-making by either the PPP or the PML(N) with the Musharraf regime, much will depend on how Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif plan to sustain the momentum of the early days. It will also depend on whether they can return to Pakistan, and if or when they are allowed to return, how successful they will be in mobilising people against the Musharraf regime. As one commentator noted in the daily Dawn, the two leaders must do a Nepal in Pakistan in order to succeed. Can they?

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