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Agni-III stumbles on its first flight

It was on a day in July 1980 that India successfully flew its first satellite launch vehicle, the SLV-3. The SLV-3's four stages all used solid propellants, showing that the country's scientists and engineers had successfully mastered the complexities of designing and building large solid motors. It was a capability that could be harnessed to build modern long-range missiles. Solid propellant missiles can be fired swiftly unlike those using liquid propellants, which must first go through a cumbersome process of being fuelled. Not surprisingly, then, the first stage of the SLV-3 became the basis of the Agni missile. What was odd, however, was that for many years, the Agni flew with a second stage that used a liquid engine. It was only in April 1999, ten years after the Agni was first tested, that the all-solid Agni-II was launched. A short-range version of the Agni, using only the SLV-3 first stage, was unveiled in January 2002. India's little discussed strategic posture based on the worst case scenario has been that it must be able to deter any attack from Pakistan as well as China, both being countries with which it had fought wars in the past and both possessing nuclear-tipped missiles. And to be a real deterrent, a range of at least 3,500 km is thought to be necessary. The Agni-II, which is thought to have a range of over 2,000 km, is clearly not considered enough. The larger and more powerful Agni-III with a range of over 3,500 km that was tested on Sunday (July 9) is intended to lengthen the reach and make for a credible deterrent.

The indications are, however, that Sunday's launch was at best only partially successful and media reports speak of Agni-III's two stages not separating properly. Missiles and launch vehicles are complex machines that are subject to enormous amounts of stress during flight, and the smallest shortcoming can result in failure. The first flights of the SLV-3, the Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle and the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, for instance, all ended in failure as probably did at least one flight of the early Agni. All these rockets then went on to fly successfully and there is no reason why Agni-III will not do the same. A thorough and objective post-flight analysis to identify the cause of the problem as well as any other issues betrayed by the missile is, however, a prerequisite for ensuring that the Agni-III meets its mission requirements. But it must also be borne in mind that missiles by themselves are not going to win the peace. China and India, the world's most populous nations that are increasingly making their presence felt on the global stage, have much to gain through friendly cooperation. The recent opening of the Nathu La Pass for cross-border trade after more than four decades of its closure was a step in the right direction. India's desire for deterrence must not be allowed to come in the way of its growing ties of friendship with China.

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