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Another attempt at confidence building

Pallavi Aiyar

For the Chinese, their relationship with the U.S. is in many ways a litmus test.

IN AN attempt to allay U.S. fears regarding the country's military modernisation, the Vice-Chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), General Guo Boxiong begins a week-long visit of the United States on Monday. The visit, which comes at the invitation of U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, marks one more step in the efforts of the world's most powerful nation and its fastest growing rival to engage each other in the military sphere, despite a large number of lingering suspicions.

General Guo's position within the CMC is second only to Chairman Hu Jintao who is also China's President. Qian Linhua, deputy director of the foreign affairs office of China's Defence Ministry, has said the visit comes at a time when "Sino-U.S. military relations are at their best since 2001."

Indeed, in recent times the two countries have undertaken a series of cooperative measures in the military field but serious tensions nonetheless continue to simmer.

China's defence budget has been burgeoning over the last few years, growing apace with attempts to modernise and upgrade its armed forces. Beijing officially projects a growth in defence spending of 14.5 per cent this year to about $35 billion. But the U.S. accuses China of understating the true amount of its military budget.

A recent Pentagon report estimates that the real figure might be closer to $105 billion — when all military spending is accounted for, a figure China strongly denies. The Pentagon report also speculates that China's military modernisation is increasingly aimed at projecting power beyond its shores into the western Pacific. In addition, concerns over China's upgradation of its nuclear arsenal to include more mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles such as the DF-31A and the JL-2 submarine-launched missiles are highlighted.

Last year, General Zhu Chengzhu made comments to the effect that Beijing was prepared to strike hundreds of U.S. cities with nuclear weapons were the U.S. to defend Taiwan from a potential Chinese attack. Military circles in the U.S. reacted with considerable consternation although Beijing distanced itself from the General's statements and reiterated that it was China's intention never to be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.

Two-pronged strategy

Both China and the U.S. are thus currently involved in a delicate two-pronged strategy. Beijing is actively seeking out opportunities for high-level military exchanges with America like General Guo's current visit, while at the same time pressing ahead with the modernisation of its armed forces. The Bush administration, on the other hand, is also interested in engaging China's military leaders with the aim of influencing their choices while simultaneously hedging against any potential military threat from the mainland.

There have thus been a number of exchange visits between Chinese and U.S. armed forces in the recent past.

Last October Mr. Rumsfeld made an official trip to China, his first since taking office in 2001. William Fallon, commander of the U.S. forces in the Pacific, was in China in May. Mr. Fallon also invited a Chinese delegation to observe U.S. military exercises in Guam in June, the first invitation of its kind extended by the U.S.

Yet, despite the attempts to step up such confidence building measures, the points of contention that remain are significant stumbling blocks in Sino-U.S. ties.

The U.S. Congress, fearful of the war-fighting information that China could gain from bilateral military cooperation, has passed bills limiting military exchanges, such as the 2000 Fiscal Year Defence Authorisation Act. When Mr. Rumsfeld visited Beijing last year, Chinese officials reportedly complained of these restrictions.

China's leadership in regional groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has also led to some reservations among military circles in the U.S. who see the SCO as a military confederacy being used by Beijing and Moscow to squeeze Washington's influence in of the region.

They point to developments such as the 2005 SCO declaration calling for a deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. air bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, the U.S. has been denied observer status at the SCO and not given permission to observe joint military exercises carried out by the organisation.

Given that the U.S. military budget is the largest in the world, there is a strong feeling in Beijing that U.S. criticism of China's military modernisation is unfair and aimed at keeping it weak rather than at any real perceived threat. But the U.S. insists that it is not only the fact the China is upgrading its defence forces but the "opaque" manner in which it is doing so that is troubling. Washington accuses China of lacking transparency and openness, accusations that Beijing once again says are unfounded.

Visits such as General Guo's are thus aimed at convincing the U.S. and the international community at large, of China's willingness to discuss its military plans openly.

But America is not the only country that China is seeking to engage. In late May, the Defence Ministries of India and China signed their first ever memorandum of understanding. During his visit to China, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee was given red carpet treatment and unprecedented access to military installations, including a visit to the strategic Lanzhou Military Command Area.

Further, a detailed presentation on China's plans to upgrade its military was made to Mr. Mukherjee and he was repeatedly assured that China's intentions were peaceful. An indication of the success of the Chinese strategy was the fact that during the visit, Mr. Mukherjee categorically stated that India did not see China as a military threat.

China's military diplomacy has thus started to pay off at least in its own immediate vicinity. With the exception of Japan, almost all the erstwhile Middle Kingdom's neighbours have gradually moved away from their traditional suspicion of the regional giant with which several have fought wars in the past.

But in many ways for the Chinese it is their relationship with the U.S., currently the world's only superpower that is a litmus test.

And while it is to be hoped that General Guo's ongoing visit will lead to some more confidence building measures, in the foreseeable future the two countries are likely to continue to circle around each other like wary pugilists.

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