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No time to lose

The recent tsunami that hit Indonesia and claimed over 600 lives has exposed the serious gaps in preparedness in the region. Most of the victims had little warning before the waves overwhelmed them. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre and Japan's Meteorological Agency had issued warnings of killer waves on their way, but the message did not reach the coastal regions. Many lives could have been saved with even a few minutes' notice. The failure to activate an effective early warning system, as resolved in the wake of the December 2004 tsunami that killed at least 2,16,000 people along the Indian Ocean rim, is striking. Setting up and maintaining a high-tech system is a challenging task, but this is a task that cannot wait — considering that, by U.N. estimates, three-quarters of the world's population will be living in coastal areas by 2025. There is a cautionary tale here for countries including India, which has a 7,000-km coastline.

The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS) was to be in place by June 2006: UNESCO had announced that the system was "up and running." It has since acknowledged that much work remains to be done. While the system had "functioned well" in terms of information reaching governments, it could not be ensured that messages made "the final mile to the people on the coast." Evidently there are still big gaps, notably in ensuring that the warning reached vulnerable coastal communities on time. It is important to educate them on how to react if an earthquake strikes or a tsunami warning is issued. Communications network is a major issue. When the Intergovernmental Coordination Group on IOTWS meets in Bali from July 31 to August 2 to assess the first real test of the system and review the progress made, it may need to revise the priorities in the light of July 17. The effort should be to evolve a consensus among nations to mobilise action to design and build the core elements of a system. Such a system will assess levels of hazard, put in place mechanisms to detect, and issue warnings about, catastrophic events, and create awareness and emergency preparedness. While warning systems in the Pacific and the Atlantic have acquired a high degree of expertise, the Indian Ocean region is still to have the benefit of such a mechanism. The strengthening of regional systems should be followed by their integration into a global system that not only covers all countries at risk, but also considers all possible natural hazards — tsunamis, storm surges, floods, and so on. This is crucial to poverty reduction, and sustainable development strategies. In India, the Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services is working on an `interim warning centre,' to be made operational by September 2007. On India's part, there may also be a need to shed apprehensions about sharing information and the seismic recordings that, in any event, would be available to all in real time.

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