CHANDIGARH: The ambitious programme of the Punjab Government to diversify at least 10 lakh hectares away from the wheat-paddy crop rotation, for which it has approached the Union Government and also sought the participation of business houses, may not be the proper answer to the crisis in the State's agriculture.

These are some of the findings in a detailed study titled, "Diversification of Cropping Patterns: A re-examination" by noted farm economist, H.S. Shergill, who heads the "Punjab Studies Unit" of the Institute for Development and Communication (IDC). The study infers that the choice was not between wheat-paddy specialisation versus a diversified cropping pattern, as is naively believed, but the need to explore specialisation in some other crop rotation combination. There is need for a thorough understanding and a holistic approach towards the inherent compulsions of modern commercial farming to clear the current confusion and then formulate a correct policy.

Talking to The Hindu , Prof. Shergill said the need for the investigation arose out of the contradiction in the perception of the farmers and the farm experts over the most suitable cropping pattern for Punjab. While experts prescribe diversification as the panacea for the current agrarian crisis, nearly 11 lakh farmers have refused to change despite expert advice and government incentives. A detailed economic evaluation of the choices of cultivation presented in the study leaves little doubt on wheat-paddy rotation being the optimal cropping pattern for Punjab agriculture. As no feasible or even a near alternative crop rotation combination seems to exist that could replace wheat-paddy rotation under the present parameters and constraints, Prof Shergill's study recommends that Punjab should stick to present cropping pattern as it yields the highest net income per hectare.

The other highlights of the study that favour the present cropping pattern include a sustainable minimum support price and assured purchase programme. Moreover, the produce could compete successfully in the world market once a level-playing field is created by the elimination of rich country subsidies.

The study also brings to the fore that Punjab farmers and farm labourers have become experts in wheat-paddy cultivation culture. It will be very difficult for them to suddenly acquire the same expertise in other crop cultures, especially when major technological inputs have made the present pattern most suitable for shifting labour out of agriculture to speed up the structural transformation of Punjab agriculture.

Taking various other combinations into account, Prof. Shergill derives that double cropping on almost the entire cultivated area is possible only with wheat-paddy rotation, which also scores over the alternatives in terms of economies of scope including lower cost of land preparation and harvesting, benefits of fallow land even with double cropping and wheat yield being the highest on rice sown lands.

While underlining that diversified cropping pattern may no longer be possible in Punjab, Prof. Shergill argues that the much touted Green Revolution of the 1960s and 70s was not a mere technological revolution, but also a complete cultural revolution as well. It transmuted irreversibly the traditional peasant soul into a cash calculating spirit imbued with commercial profit maximisation considerations.

While replacing all the less remunerative crops by wheat and rice, Punjab farmers also expanded cultivation of these two grains to the physical limit by increasing the net area sown and extending double cropping to almost 100 per cent of the cultivable area.

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