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Sri Lanka on the brink

Sri Lanka's four-year-old ceasefire is in critical condition, and with the resumption of full-scale hostilities, all that separates it from death is an official declaration by one or the other side, with the required two-week notice, of withdrawal from the February 2002 pact. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam used the truce first to wage a silent war against the Sri Lankan state, establishing its writ in the North-East and "cleansing" the region of its political rivals. The breaking away of the Karuna faction in 2004 saw the war turn more open, with the Tigers accusing the Government of assisting the splinter group. Despite taking several direct hits, starting with the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in 2005, and an increasing number of attacks on its military from November last year, the Sri Lankan Government refrained from retaliation. The attempt on the life of the army chief, the killing of another general, and the attack on Sinhalese civilians, provoking the Government to respond with air strikes on LTTE positions in the North-East, escalated the tension. It now seems that the Government has abandoned the restraint that initially gave it the moral high ground in the stand-off. The aerial bombing of areas in the East to free a water source in Tiger-controlled territory for the use of people living in government-controlled areas has given the LTTE an excuse to hit back. While the LTTE was clearly in contravention of the ceasefire in denying water to a large civilian population in Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, as an accountable state, should have given more thought to the fallout of its actions.

Yet, the fact that neither side has officially revoked the ceasefire is of significance, and gives hope that war can even now be averted. But the challenge for peace facilitator Norway is not just to pull back the two sides. It must also find new ceasefire monitors. The LTTE warning that it could not provide a guarantee to the lives of nationals from European Union countries following the EU ban on it has seen Finland and Denmark pack up. All nations act in their best interests. Still, it is surprising that countries that decided to participate in the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission fully aware of the complexity of the conflict and assented to the EU ban knowing the consequences for their monitoring role, surrendered so meekly to the LTTE threat. With Sweden also following suit, Norway and Iceland will be holding the fort. If Norway manages to resolve this issue and pull the two sides back from going headlong into another war, it would be a big achievement for now. Finding a lasting peace in Sri Lanka is a different matter, given the LTTE's questionable commitment to a federal solution to the conflict. For its part, the Sinhalese polity must realise that devolution of power to the Tamil areas is the only solution to the ethnic conflict and a decision on it cannot be delayed any longer. In this, the Government and opposition parties have an equal responsibility.

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