Bangalore: By 2020, if the current trends of employment generation continue, India will face an "unemployment explosion" with substantial negative socio-economic ramifications. There will be over 211 million unemployed in 2020, which works out to an unemployment rate of 30 per cent.

Indicating this, TeamLease Services in its `India Labour Report 2006' says unemployment will largely be a youth problem: nine out of 10 unemployed people will be in the 15 to 29 age bracket. India's working population in 2020 will be equal to India's total population (846 million) when economic reforms started in 1991.

"The potential working age population in the 20 to 59 years group in 2020 is estimated to be over 761 million. About half of all Indians (about 567 million in 2006) currently fall into the 20 to 59 age bracket, which in itself is no small advantage. And this segment is increasing by 2.4 per cent every year," the report says.

"But, in 2020, in terms of the share of this group in our total population, we are looking at a working age population of 56 per cent of the total estimated population of 1.35 billion. The overall labour force that will come up in 2020 will be around 716 million," it says.

TeamLease states that education is an indicator of the labour market and the "picture is not very good." Considering the present education trend, the number of persons who will be the most employable graduates will be barely 88 million, with a slightly smaller number (76 million) for those with higher secondary education. In 2005, there were 43 million graduates and a similar number who had passed their higher secondary.

State-wise estimates

Based on Census 2001, the unemployment level in Goa will be highest at 55.4 per cent (20.1 per cent in 2001), followed by West Bengal with 40 per cent (22), Uttar Pradesh 33.8 per cent (8.6), Andhra Pradesh 33.5 per cent (8.4), and Himachal Pradesh 33.3 per cent (6.5). Gujarat will have the least unemployment at 7.3 per cent (6.7), followed by Bihar 14.5 per cent (7.3), and Rajasthan 16.9 per cent (4.8). Karnataka's unemployment percentage will go up from six to 23.7 per cent, according to the report.Kerala is the only State that shows positive growth with the unemployment level coming down from 28.7 to 27.8 per cent.

Employment potential

The report states that the agricultural sector, three-fifths of the populating dependent on it, provides barely one-fifth of the GDP. "Underemployment and disguised employment is high." With farming fast becoming increasingly less rewarding than other sectors, farming households are likely to release an increasingly large share of workers every year for non-agricultural activities, the report says.

After a long period of job shedding, the manufacturing sector, it says, is expanding now. To remain competitive against global manufacturers the sector has had to drop prices while becoming more cost and labour efficient.

The services sector is seen as India's great white-collar hope. Apart from a small share of low-paid agency jobs, education and skill will play a big role in determining employability.

The report states that labour market reforms are the way forward, says the report.

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