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Pakistan's Baloch crisis

In the last weeks of his life, Akbar Khan Bugti twice told a confidant he wished to die the death of a martyr. On Sunday, a helicopter gunship attack fulfilled the last wish of the 1927-born, Oxford University-educated tribal chief, who had become an icon of the fourth Baloch war for independence. It is still unclear if Nawab Bugti was the intended target of the raid that claimed his life. What is certain is that the Baloch nationalist forces he represented have become a considerable threat to Pakistan's military regime. Last month Balochistan's Governor, Owais Ahmed Ghani, proclaimed that it was too late to talk to Nawab Bugti, adding that the Pakistan Government wished to take "the middle-class, educated majority of the province into confidence," not "a handful of Sardars and Nawabs." Soon afterwards, on July 20, President Pervez Musharraf's regime claimed that a large-scale military offensive had broken the back of the insurgents. Over the next 30 days, 44 incidents of violence claimed 24 lives. Traffic on the Quetta-Karachi highway was brought to a halt by the bombing of a key bridge; and repeated attacks on pipelines leading out of the Sui Gas Fields disrupted supplies to power and steel plants across Balochistan and Sindh. None of these attacks was of great military significance — except that each served to diminish General Musharraf's credibility in his core constituency, the Pakistan Armed Forces.

Few experts believe the 79-year-old Nawab's death will end the fighting, considering that months of indiscriminate air and artillery strikes failed to do so. Younger leaders like Nawabzada Balach Marri and Nawab Bugti's grandson, Brahmdagh Baloch, are likely to take up the reins. The tragedy will feed tribal anger in Balochistan. Underpinning this fury is an iniquitous pattern of development. While revenues from Balochistan's gas fields have fuelled rapid development, most jobs and business opportunities have gone to skilled immigrants from other provinces. General Musharraf, who shot down a peace package crafted by members of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League faction, has displayed none of the political skills needed to address tribal grievances. Given its growing energy needs, and the fact that natural gas from Iran must pass through Balochistan, India has obvious equities in the region. However, New Delhi needs to proceed with great care — not because Islamabad has protested (Pakistan, after all, expressed concern over the 2002 Gujarat violence) but because Indian diplomatic support for the insurgents might serve to legitimise the military regime's repression. The latest developments in Balochistan could spell big trouble for General Musharraf. After all, the last Baloch war ended with the execution of President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and the rise of the quasi-`Islamist' military dictatorship of General Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq — events for which the entire region, and much of the world, is still paying the price.

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