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Labour in deep crisis

Judging from the events of the past two days, the Blair era in British politics is effectively all over bar the shouting. Tony Blair, of course, will linger on as Prime Minister for some more months to allow him to surpass former Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher's record of ten years in office. Faced with a growing revolt against his leadership, Mr. Blair felt compelled to announce that the Labour Party's annual conference in Manchester later this month will be his last as leader and that he would be gone within 12 months. Until now he had resisted pressure to indicate a time frame for his exit beyond saying that this was his last term in office and he would not contest the next general election. But the crisis came to a head this week when eight junior members of his government — one Minister and seven parliamentary aides — resigned, arguing that it was no longer in the interest of the party for him to continue. Significantly, many of those who resigned were known Blair loyalists, and the rebellion threatened to spread beyond the circle of the `usual suspects.' More Ministers were reported to be planning to resign amid threats from party workers to heckle Mr. Blair at the Manchester conference if he continued to dither about his exit plans. It was against this background and talk of paralysis in the government that Mr. Blair was bounced into declaring his hand.

For a man who played a critical role in reviving Labour's political fortunes, leading it back to power in 1997 after 18 years in the wilderness and then presiding over two more successive election victories, the manner of Mr. Blair's going is less than dignified. Those who watched the last days of the Thatcher leadership say that history is repeating itself. Mrs. Thatcher paid the price for insisting on `going on and on' and refusing to recognise that the party had fallen out of love with her. Mr. Blair made the same mistake and is now set to go the `Thatcher way.' Ostensibly, the crisis in the Labour Party is due to a power struggle between Mr. Blair and Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer and the man most likely to be Britain's next Prime Minister. But the problem is much deeper. At the grassroots and among traditional `Old Labour' voters, Mr. Blair is seen as an arrogant neo-liberal who has betrayed the party's ideals in pursuit of power and personal glory. Then there is his subservient alliance with the Bush administration, which led Britain to support the Iraq invasion and occupation — in the face of overwhelming opposition from the British people — and Israeli military action in Lebanon. His foreign policy has alienated large swathes of even non-ideological New Labour voters, especially Muslims. Increasingly, Labour MPs see Mr. Blair as an electoral liability and fear losing their seats at the next election if he is still the leader. The fact that the Conservatives look like regaining ground under their youthful leader, David Cameron, has created panic in Labour ranks and compounded the crisis.

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