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Stay the course

Even before India and Pakistan have had a chance to give concrete shape to the joint "anti-terrorism institutional mechanism" announced by the two sides in Havana, a torrent of criticism has come from the Bharatiya Janata Party and a host of retired hawkish officials. Although couched as reasoned objections to the utility of the new joint mechanism, the point most of the carpers really wish to make is that the Manmohan Singh Government must not resume the dialogue process with Pakistan. The basic reasoning is that since the fingerprints of Islamabad can be found all over the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai and elsewhere, to continue talking with President Musharraf will be tantamount to surrendering to terrorism. While the investigations into the Mumbai and Malegaon blasts are on and no evidence has yet been discovered about the involvement of any specific organisation based in India or abroad, there can be no disputing that terrorist organisations targeting India, notably the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, continue to operate from Pakistani territory. It is also clear that Islamabad has not really delivered on the assurances it gave New Delhi in January 2004. But what to do about this? Surely, writing off the dialogue process and assuming a hawkish stance cannot be India's best strategy. The problem with the Prime Minister's critics is that they can offer no viable alternative to the current policy. What they offer is nothing but idle, dangerous chatter about `hot pursuit' and `surgical strikes.'

It bears recall that the Vajpayee Government sought the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan, and achieved a breakthrough, in 2004 precisely because the strategy of `coercive diplomacy' — including a massive forward deployment of the Indian Army along the border with Pakistan for nearly a year — failed to yield positive results. Post-Pokhran-II, what has become clear is that there can be no military solution to the long-term Pakistani patronage of terrorist organisations. However, this does not imply that the challenge of terrorism cannot be met effectively through a resourceful combination of internal and external policies. If military means are not available to de-incentivise Pakistani support for terrorism, the Vajpayee-initiated strategy of normalising relations approaches the problem from the other end. In less than two years, the composite dialogue process has created opportunities for wider people-to-people contact as well as economic exchanges between the two countries. Enduring solutions to the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes are within close reach. If this constructive process is allowed to continue and deepen, it can, over time, create solid constituencies within Pakistani society that do not just support friendship with India but also have an incentive to push for an end to Islamabad's support for, or toleration of, violent extremist groups targeting India. Only policy changes emanating from Pakistan's internal social and political dynamics will prove durable in the long run. As it continues realistically to talk to General Musharraf's regime, India must find ways of engaging with the full spectrum of Pakistani political forces in preparation for the eventual restoration of democracy in that country.

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