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Who's next?

                                           
Japan will have its own device,
                                           
Transistorised at half the price... 
                                           
Who's next?
                                           
Who's next?
                                           
Who's next?
                                           

Art always seems to have a head start in pursuit of the truth and these lines from a Tom Lehrer song, recorded in 1965, have contemporary resonance. The state parties figuring in Mr. Lehrer's playful, pre-NPT list of likely and potential proliferators have changed, but the prediction of the unsustainability of discriminatory non-proliferation regime remains spot on. North Korea's nuclear explosive test of October 9, 2006 at Hwaderi needs to be condemned and opposed. However, understanding what is behind Pyongyang's adventurism is more important. "The background," notes Dan Plesch, an academic at London's School of Oriental and African Studies, "is that, since the end of the Cold War, the nuclear states have tried to impose a double standard, hanging on to nuclear weapons for themselves and their friends while denying them to others... like alcoholics condemning teenage drinking." The more specific background is the Bush administration's akratic policy of jettisoning the Agreed Framework developed by the Clinton administration for engaging patiently with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and providing major incentives for not going ahead with nuclear weaponisation. Only the most loyal camp followers and apologists of Washington will dispute the fact that its dogmatic obduracy made it virtually impossible for the six-nation initiative and Beijing's political diplomacy to succeed with Pyongyang. Like the proverbial bull in a china shop, President George Bush responded to the challenge by slotting the Kim Jong Il regime in an `axis of evil,' threatening regime change, stopping oil supplies, and imposing financial sanctions.

The lesson to be learned from North Korea's nuclear adventurism is even more important and it has been highlighted by sober analysts round the world. As Ramesh Thakur points out in the article published on this page, military interventions by "a rampant western coalition" bypassing the United Nations have caused "massive disquiet and unease" and made many countries "more determined to upgrade national defence." More particularly, the fateful lesson North Korea learned from the Iraq war seemed to be that "Saddam Hussein was attacked because he did not have nuclear weapons." Who's really going to be next? South Korea? What impact will the test have on Japan's strategic and military posture, especially under a new Prime Minister who made his reputation as somebody who could stand up to North Korea? One thing is clear. The way to contain and resolve the crisis triggered by Hwaderi 2006 is to restrain and roll back Bushism, as much as it is to restrain and roll back Pyongyang's nuclear adventurism.

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