Opinion - News Analysis   

Maoists make a tactical retreat?

K. Srinivas Reddy

In Andhra Pradesh, police pressure has forced the naxalites on the backfoot. But the government has to guard against a counter offensive.

FACED WITH a relentless police onslaught that saw several top leaders killed, the naxalites in Andhra Pradesh have been forced to consider a "strategic retreat" from their "strongholds," including the Nallamala forest.

Some armed cadres have already crossed over to the jungles along the border with Orissa from the agency areas of East Godavari and Visakhapatnam as well as from the north coastal districts of Vizianagaram and Srikakulam.

Regular operations by the security forces have shattered the myth of the Nallamala forest being "impregnable." Many of the naxal cadres are also moving down south to Kadapa and Chittoor districts to escape the police pressure. However, targeted killings and opportunistic ambushes of unwary security forces personnel are likely to continue, though on a lower scale.

Three years ago, north Telangana had seen such a tactical retreat by the Maoists. All the local guerrilla squads operating in the plains were pulled back into the forests. Subsequently, when police pressure increased, the jungle squads were moved into the Dandakaranya region that includes the Sironcha-Ahiri belt in Maharashtra and Bastar in Chhattisgarh.

The current tactical retreat comes against the backdrop of crippling blows the police have dealt the Maoists. A racket involving the fabrication of shoulder-fired rocket launchers in Tamil Nadu was busted; a large quantity of improvised mines, which can be detonated using wireless sets, were seized in Prakasam district; and pressure activated anti-personnel mines were recovered in Visakhapatnam and Vijayawada this year. Three directional mines (without explosives), each weighing over 450 kg, were recovered in Visakhapatnam, while 25 mortars were seized in Prakasam.

Leaders slain

More worrying for the naxalites is that as many as 115 of their leaders have been "neutralised" in the year so far. Some of the important leaders killed are: Prakasam district committee member Battina Koteswara Rao and two others (February 5); Kadapa-Anantapur divisional committee secretary Sadu Ramesh Reddy and eight others (April 28); State military commission member Matta Ravi Kumar (June 16); Guntur district committee member and Nallamala military platoon commander Balagani Janaiah (June 18); Khammam district secretary Vangara Rambabu and his wife (June 21); Nallamala LGS commander Katamoni Maddileti and seven others (June 27); State committee secretary Burra Chinnah Goud and six others (July 23); State committee member and Nallamala forest division secretary Shyamala Venkatesam (October 6); and east division committee member Kadari Ramulu (October 7).

The biggest concern for the Maoists, however, is their inability to get recruits from among students and workers. As a result, their mass organisation activity has reduced to zero with no "partial struggles" being taken up.

On the other hand, the consistency with which the States and the Centre are coordinating their counter-revolutionary strategies has begun yielding results. The increased levels of cooperation among the affected States, the intelligence-driven operations that led to the large-scale recovery of arms, ammunition, and explosives, and the arrests of key naxalite leaders in different States have forced the Maoists to redraft their strategies.

However, the retreat can only be a tactical one and the rebels can be expected to try and stage a "comeback." Recent history stands testimony to the resilience of the revolutionary movement and its ability to reclaim areas. In the 1970s, the naxalbari movement was crushed in West Bengal, but it has not only revived but is now assuming serious proportions in Bankura, Midnapore, and Purulia districts, while moderate activity is seen in eight other districts. Similarly in Andhra Pradesh, the movement was crushed during the Emergency, but now it has spread to almost all the districts.

Notwithstanding the present retreat, Maoist action teams could resort to an intensified Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign (TCOC), targeting soft political targets apart from ambushing security forces personnel. The naxalites believe that only a TCOC can halt the State's onslaught. The severe crackdown during the Telugu Desam regime was sought to be countered through such a campaign by the naxals. The abortive Alipiri attack on Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu was part of the offensive.

With the Maoists on the back foot, the onus is now on the Congress Government to ensure that the situation is not allowed to become conducive for the naxals to stage a comeback.

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