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Strategic flaws, political spin

A basic premise of the Iraq policy followed by the Bush administration has been that the government of President Nouri al-Maliki would, at some point, be able to govern. The hope was that the regime would, at the minimum, assert effective control over the army and police and take on the burden of providing security to all Iraqi citizens without discrimination. Washington indicated it would consider a phased withdrawal of its troops from the occupied country once this condition was progressively fulfilled. That premise, it is now blindingly clear, was flawed. The Maliki regime does not appear in the least interested in setting up the democratic and non-discriminatory order that the United States is supposed to favour. The main political forces in the coalition running Iraq are two hard-core Shia sectarian organisations. They share the goal of establishing their sect's supremacy even as they compete fiercely with each other. Army and police units either step aside or act as accomplices when death squads owing allegiance to these two parties target the Sunni sect, elements of which continue their campaign of indiscriminate killing. Given this strategic situation, there was no likelihood of the occupation forces ever achieving their objective of `pacifying' Iraq despite their changing the tactics repeatedly. In the most recent of these tactical shifts, U.S. commanders concentrated troops in Baghdad with a view to stabilising the capital as a prelude to replicating the plan in the rest of the country. Now they do not contest what the whole world knows — the plan has failed.

As the situation in Iraq deteriorates inexorably, President George Bush strives hard to give a positive spin. He did lapse recently into an admission that he was not satisfied with the way his policy was unfolding. Almost simultaneously and in total contradiction, he insisted his forces were winning. While Mr. Bush has often appeared to be in a state of denial, there is a political explanation for this latest bit of obfuscation. The Republican Party is in danger of losing control of both chambers of the legislative branch on November 7. Faced with this looming debacle, Mr. Bush has dusted up a game plan that has brought success in previous elections. By insisting that victory is still possible, he hopes to rally his conservative base. At the same time, by admitting there are slippages, he hopes to assure independent voters that he has not lost touch with reality. The United States's misadventure in Iraq is the latest horrifically destructive instance of a superpower being able to learn nothing and forget nothing.

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