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Leftward tilt in Latin America continues

Rory Carroll

The Sandinista leader and former Marxist revolutionary, Daniel Ortega, appeared to have mounted a spectacular political comeback on Monday after preliminary results showed he had won Nicaragua's presidential election in the first round.

Mr Ortega led by a margin which seemed wide enough to avoid a run-off and to deliver a stinging rebuke to Washington, which had openly campaigned against him. Returns from about 40 per cent of polling stations gave him 40.1 per cent, far ahead of his four rivals and over the threshold for victory. An estimate by an independent watchdog, Ethics and Transparency, which was spot on in previous elections, put him at 38.5 per cent and nine points clear of his nearest rival.

To win in the first round a candidate must score 40 per cent, or more than 35 per cent with a five-point margin over the nearest rival.

The Sandinistas did not wait for the final results to erupt in jubilation, with thousands pouring on to the streets to sing, dance, wave black and red flags and set off fireworks. Mr Ortega (60), mellower and cagier since losing three previous elections, made no immediate statement.

Since being ousted from the presidency in 1990, in the wake of a brutal civil war against U.S.-sponsored Contra rebels and crippling sanctions by Washington, Mr Ortega has reinvented himself as a moderate.

The Sandinistas' main challenger, Eduardo Montealegre, a conservative banker favoured by Washington, trailed at 32.7 per cent, according to the early polling returns.

Mr. Montealegre did not concede defeat, citing irregularities in Sunday's vote. ``In a democracy, that is unacceptable. We are going to a second round,'' he said.

If Mr Ortega's victory is confirmed it will be testimony to his stamina and his opponents' disarray, rather than a surge in his popularity.

He scored around the same or better in 1990, 1996 and 2001, yet lost. —

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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