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Seeking a ballistic missile shield

For some years now, India has been interested in protecting itself from ballistic missiles. The reason for this concern is not hard to discern, considering the steady growth in Pakistan's missile capability. It is believed the Shaheen-2 missile, for instance, can reach places almost 1,200 km away. In its quest for a missile shield, the Indian government reportedly looked at a Russian system in the late 1990s and also showed interest in Israel's Arrow missile defence system. Around 2001-2002, it purchased two Israeli Green Pine radars that formed part of the Arrow system and could pick up incoming missiles. Interestingly, Indian defence officials indicated at the time that the radars would be used for "advanced research" purposes. That research project may have been the development of an indigenous missile shield. On Monday, Indian defence scientists announced that a modified Prithvi missile had intercepted another Prithvi missile in flight and destroyed it. The successful test was undoubtedly a significant step in creating India's own missile defence system. However, it is important to realise that a missile defence system is a complex affair, involving sensors such as radars that can pick up incoming missiles and their warheads, a powerful control system to coordinate operations as well as fast, highly manoeuvrable missiles to carry out the interception. The system must be capable of working smoothly and reliably at all times since warding off ballistic missiles leaves little room for error.

The technological challenge is formidable. It is worth recalling that when the U.S. Patriot missiles were deployed during the first Gulf War to knock down Iraq's primitive Scud missiles, they performed poorly. Later Patriot versions and the Israeli Arrow system are likely to have benefited from that experience. Even so, no missile defence system is likely to be able to provide total security. One option for adversaries will be to try to swamp the missile defence system by firing a large number of dummy missiles along with missiles armed with real warheads. If even a few nuclear-tipped missiles were to get through and hit some major Indian cities, the results will be catastrophic. Playing this sort of Russian roulette with ballistic missiles is downright dangerous and it is far from clear that missile defence system can ever provide India the security from nuclear attack that it seeks. Détente and a bilateral India-Pakistan agreement that will enable the two countries to roll back nuclear weaponisation offer the best prospects for long-term security.

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