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Chavez ahead of his rival in opinion polls

Rory Carroll

The nation is going to grow, says Venezuelan President

— PHOTO: AP

DRAWING MILLIONS: President Hugo Chavez greets supporters during a re-election campaign rally in Western Trujillo, Venezuela.

Caracas: Hundreds of young men and women in red T-shirts surge towards the doors, clamouring to be allowed in, but the theatre in central Caracas is already full and the show is about to begin.

Those crammed inside fizz with expectation, their eyes locked on the stage, willing him to appear. Suddenly he bounds into view, arms aloft, and thousands of voices shout in welcome.

They have come to be reminded why they love Hugo Chavez and the Venezuelan President does not disappoint. Raw political talent and an ocean of oil have given him the means to persuade them, and millions of others, to vote for him in Sunday election.

Popular leader

Polls put him around 20 points ahead of main challenger Manuel Rosales, and this rally of students, broadcast live on state TV, illustrates why he is so popular — and why so loathed by a minority.

Speaking without notes, on occasion breaking into song, jokes and improvised rap, Mr. Chavez animates the audience with the charisma and chequebook which have made him a global player.

Since his election in 1998, seven universities have been opened, says Mr. Chavez (52), and that is just for starters. ``We are now about to have the greatest expansion of higher education in the history of Venezuela.''

Soon there will be pay rises for professors, 15 campuses, 50 institutions, 200 college buses, hundreds of thousands of college places. He makes promises as if calling out bingo numbers, except everyone is a winner. ``We are going to grow, expand, increase.'' There are not enough verbs to convey the scale.

Since his coming to power oil prices have jumped tenfold to around $60 a barrel, boosting the treasury of the world's fifth biggest oil exporter. By some estimates state spending has doubled in the past year alone, much of it on education, health clinics and subsidised food for the poor as well as bridges and railways.

For people such as Marisol Torres (56), a grandmother in Petare, a slum clinging to hills outside the capital, Caracas, the impact has been dramatic and immediate: treatment for chest pains, more and better food on the table. ``Why wouldn't I vote for Chavez?'' she asks. For others Mr. Chavez's appeal is idealistic, a belief that rhetoric about a ``21st-century socialist revolution'' will deliver a more just alternative to neo-liberalism.

Chomsky endorsement

``We want to open the doors to everyone,'' said Katiana Hernandez, a 23-year-old IT student. That spirit, combined with Mr. Chavez's challenge to the President George Bush, has won endorsements from Left-wing intellectuals such as Noam Chomsky. Mr. Rosales (53), a state governor and veteran politician, has united the fractured Opposition and raised its hopes by mobilising huge crowds. But the incumbent appears a hulking, immovable object.

``There is a lot of support for the man as well as the mission. That makes him very hard to beat,'' said Alex Evans, of the U.S. polling company Evans McDonough. It published a poll this week showing the incumbent at 57 per cent and his rival at 38 per cent, in line with most other surveys. Mr. Evans compared the gap to Ronald Reagan v Walter Mondale in 1984.

Venezuela has freedom of speech and assembly and there are no political prisoners or killings. But many opponents feel intimidated.

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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