Kerala - Kozhikode   

Political undercurrents in Thiruvambadi

R. Madhavan Nair

Several factors make prediction difficult for the December 4 bypoll Several factors make prediction difficult for the December 4 bypoll

KOZHIKODE: Strong political undercurrents have made prediction of the outcome of the Thiruvambadi Assembly byelection difficult.

Several factors have contributed to the uncertainty. The electoral history of the hilly constituency is one. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) had won all elections there except the one held six months ago.

The split in the Congress and the consequent merger of the group led by K. Karunakaran with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is another.

There are other equally important factors too, like the suspected erosion in the Indian Union Muslim League's vote bank witnessed in the last Assembly poll.

The once formidable UDF strength in the predominantly rural and agricultural constituency was built on the strong support enjoyed by the Congress, IUML and the Kerala Congress groups there.

Left Democratic Front (LDF) campaign managers believe that the wave of support that swept it to power in the last Assembly election will once again propel its candidate George M. Thomas to victory.

UDF campaign managers believe that their candidate (in the last election) M.C. Mayin Haji's defeat was mainly because a large number of UDF voters had kept away from polling booths.

This time the UDF camp is confident that its poll machinery would function quite well.

Prestigious fight

For both LDF and UDF, the byelection is a prestigious one. A win for the IUML nominee and UDF candidate V.M. Ummer would be a much-needed morale booster for the front.

Which is why an army of Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee leaders are in Thiruvambadi, an issue that made a senior Congress leader remark: "I wonder if it is the right strategy, campaigning should be led by local leaders... not by glamorous KPCC office-bearers from outside". For the LDF, of course, a win in Thiruvambadi would be a reaffirmation of people's support which swept it to power.

The UDF campaign managers expect to slash the lead that LDF candidate Mathai Chacko got in the May election in Karassery and Thiruvambadi panchayats in the December 4 byelection.

Their campaign in Kattippara panchayat is directed at persuading all their supporters to cast their votes for the UDF candidate. Tamarassery panchayat also is considered by the UDF to be its major source of votes — since it is Mr. Ummer's hometown.

Getting all UDF votes polled is crucial. UDF's convener in Kozhikode P.K.K. Bava believes that 30 per cent of UDF votes were not polled in the May election and that it was a major factor that helped CPI(M)'s Mathai Chacko to win.

The Thiruvambadi byelection has aroused political curiosity because it is the first election after the merger of the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) with the NCP. Both parties have pockets of support in Thiruvambadi. UDF leaders believe that the merger would not be of much consequence since their "supporters are a confused lot" because "they are not sure if they would be allowed to join the LDF."

Murali's lead

Huge leads from the Thiruvambady Assembly segment had helped NCP State president K. Muraleedharan to post impressive victories under UDF banner in past Lok Sabha elections from Kozhikode.

Though the NCP did not share campaign platform with the LDF in this bypoll, Communist Party of India (Marxist) district secretary T.P. Ramakrishnan went on stage to meet Mr. Karunakaran at an election meeting on the last day of electioneering, strengthening the impression that the NCP does matter for the LDF.

It would also be of interest to know the effects of Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign for its candidate Girish Thevally. The LDF has been offered support of smaller groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami, but the UDF is confident that it would not make a difference.

LDF candidate Mathai Chacko had won the May election by over 5,000 votes. And in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll, the Thiruvambadi Assembly segment gave LDF candidate M.P. Veerendrakumar a leader of 2,000. The LDF has a record of winning Assembly byelections whenever it has been in power.

With the campaigning focussing a wide range of subjects from death sentence passed against Saddam Hussein to suicide of farmers, the byelection has generated considerable excitement.

It is true the election result would not affect the LDF Government. It would not even be taken as a referendum on the Government's performance during the last six months. A UDF win, on the other hand, might bring some consolation for the front, particularly the IUML, which badly needs an election win to repair the damage its image suffered in the last Assembly election.

The results will be announced only on December 7.

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