The Hindu : Front Page : Thiruvambadi bypoll outcome crucial for LDF

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Monday, Dec 04, 2006
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Thiruvambadi bypoll outcome crucial for LDF

C. Gouridasan Nair

A UDF win would suggest that coalition equations are back

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The outcome of the Thiruvambadi Assembly byelection would have no impact on the governance structure in Kerala, but it could still have serious implications for ruling Left Democratic Front's political fortunes.

The constituency has traditionally gone with the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and it was a pleasant surprise when the late Mathai Chacko of the CPI(M) wrested the seat from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Chacko's win had to do a lot with the political wave of tidal proportions that present Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan had unleashed on Kerala during the run-up to the Assembly elections and complexities that the UDF and the IUML had ran into around the same time.

LDF's worry

When the UDF wins a seat that is its traditional stronghold, it should not normally cause heartburning for the LDF. But a UDF win in Thiruvambadi, despite its being a traditional seat of the UDF, could be a little different this time.

It might, for instance, suggest that the sheen of the massive victory that the LDF scored in the May Assembly elections might have begun to wear off, that old coalitional rivalries are back after a short interval where popular imagination travelled beyond alliance loyalties.

LDF campaign

The manner in which the LDF has mobilised all its resources in the constituency is indicative of the importance that the ruling alliance attaches to the electoral contest in Thiruvambadi.

Almost the entire Cabinet had descended on the constituency to ensure the LDF nominee's victory and this had given rise to complaints that the LDF might be deviating from the ethical political path to woo the electorate of Thiruvambadi.

Christian votes

What Thiruvambadi would show is how the settler Christians in the area perceive the LDF dispensation six months after it assumed office and initiated such measures as a loan waiver scheme for debt-ridden farmers and a law to bridle the private self-financing managements in the professional education sector, lived with a string of custodial and near-custodial deaths and did some somersault on major corruption scandals.

One factor that might favour the ruling alliance is what is perceived as the pragmatism of remaining with the winner.

Even if the LDF loses Thiruvambadi, it would still remain the winner at the State level, having a brute majority in the Assembly.

Therefore, the electorate of Thiruvambadi might well decide that it would be prudent to stay with those who call the shots at the State-level. Given past experience, the IUML itself may not be able to do much about that even if they wish to.

Jamaat, PDP factor

The Jamaat-e-Islami and the People's Democratic Party, though they have very little cadre support at the ground level, have declared that the situation at the national or international levels has not changed much to necessitate a rethink on the support they had extended to the Left in the May Assembly elections.

That is good news for the CPI(M) and the LDF. And, with the Nationalist Congress Party, reinforced after the merger with the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran), throwing its lot with the LDF, there is that much more reason for the LDF to feel hopeful about the bypoll outcome.

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