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Manoeuvres in Uttar Pradesh

Politically volatile Uttar Pradesh is again in the news — this time thanks to the growing clamour for the dismissal of the Mulayam Singh Government ahead of the State Assembly election. That the Chief Minister is in some trouble is evident enough. On Sunday, a Bharatiya Janata Party delegation trooped into Rashtrapati Bhavan, armed with a litany of complaints against his Government, including the spate of murders, kidnappings, and armed dacoities. On Monday, the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party followed suit, with Sonia Gandhi and Mayawati painting a picture of wanton lawlessness in Samajwadi Party-ruled U.P. A reported meeting between Governor T.V. Rajeshwar and Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil has added more grist to the rumour mills. So what are the chances that U.P. will go to the polls under President's Rule? None of Mr. Mualaym Singh's opponents has claimed that his Government has been reduced to a minority; post the Bommai judgment, no summary dismissal is possible, given that a floor test has been held to be "the proper course for testing the strength of the Ministry." Nor is law and order an easy ground to invoke. Indeed, the majority judgment in the Bommai case stresses on a "situation of impasse" for a presidential proclamation under Article 356. To quote Justices P.B. Sawant and Kuldip Singh, "It is not every situation arising in the State but a situation which shows that constitutional government has become an impossibility, which alone will entitle the President to issue the proclamation."

To the Chief Minister's legion of enemies, the desecration of an Ambedkar statue in Kanpur last week is clinching evidence that anarchy rules in U.P. This incident is seen to be the trigger that fuelled last week's violent Dalit protests across Maharashtra. Yet on this very score, the Maharahstra Government could be judged to be more guilty: it was shockingly slow to respond to the Khairlanji killings, did nothing to address growing Dalit anger, and watched helplessly as Maharashtra burnt. It is not just that the Opposition in U.P faces a legal hurdle to the dismissal of Mr. Mulayam Singh. He has also proved to be politically savvier. Last week, he won the support of 21 more MLAs from across the spectrum. The new additions are quite clearly Mr. Mulayam Singh's insurance against possible withdrawal of support to his Government by the Congress and the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal. The move has ensured Mr. Ajit Singh will not easily break with Mr. Mulayam Singh. The Congress is equally in a quandary — it continues to support a Government which it claims to abhor. Whether or not he returns to power after the elections, Mr. Mulayam Singh has surely won this round.

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