NEW DELHI : India's decision to import wheat came as a surprise to the world markets, given the fact that India had become increasingly known as a self-sufficient country in recent years with occasional large surpluses for exports, says the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in its latest Food Outlook report.

In 2006-07, large orders from India and Brazil will sustain world trade in wheat, it adds.

With consumption rising faster than production and depleted public stocks, India purchased 5.5 million tonnes of wheat to avert a price rise. The Government also suspended the five per cent import duty on wheat till December to encourage imports by private millers. If the current forecasts prove to be correct, imports by Brazil and India in 2006-07 alone would add up to around 14 million tonnes, the report observes.

It notes that global cereal prices, particularly for wheat and maize, had surged to the highest levels in a decade owing to poor harvests in major wheat growing countries, including United States, Russian Federation, Ukraine and Australia, and supply constraints.

World production of coarse grains is lower by 2.1 per cent over last year, at 981 million tonnes. Maize output is lower by 2.2 per cent at 694 million tonnes.

Rice growth will be affected by the typhoons, drought, flooding, diseases and insect attacks, but sugar output recovered in 2006.

Global expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2006 could reach a ``historic high'' of $374 billion, over two per cent more than the previous year's level.

Import bills of developing countries are expected to rise by almost five per cent from 2005, mainly as a result of increase in prices, rather than the actual volume of food imports.

World wheat output in 2006 is estimated to be about 592 million tonnes, about 5.3 per cent lower than in 2005. However, with increased winter acreage and good growing conditions, a strong rebound is likely in the 2007 harvests.

In Asia, aggregate production is set to be up nearly three per cent, mostly reflecting larger crops in China, India and Kazakhstan. North African wheat crop is also likely to recover.

International trade in wheat in 2006-07 is currently forecast at 110 million tonnes, slightly below FAO's last forecast reported in October. ``The decline in this month's forecast is mostly a reflection of further cuts in commercial imports by several countries, mostly as a reaction to higher world prices,'' the report says.

However, despite lower imports by many countries, world trade in 2006-07 is still expected to be just one million tonnes below the record in 2004-05 because of large import orders from India and Brazil, ``without which world trade would have taken a sharp dive,'' the report asserts.

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