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Feasibility of a moonbase

Tim Radford

NASA, THE U.S. space agency, has just announced plans to realise the 100-year-old dream of a moonbase. It proposes to do so within 20 years, using 50-year-old technology. Dream on. The chances of actually making a second home on the moon within the working lifetime of any of NASA's current chiefs are low indeed.

Problem number one is the technology: the plan for the moment is to exploit "existing architecture." That means the lunar modules that took Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and 10 other Apollo astronauts to the moon nearly 40 years ago could see service again, except that they couldn't, because the agency junked the hardware, the skills, and the experience 30 years ago when it abandoned any serious plans for human space flight beyond low-earth orbit. So engineers must repackage old ideas, but this time with a lot more room for luggage, because the first moon colonists must take everything with them.

The second problem is water. There may be accessible water on Mars, but to prepare for the red planet, astronauts must first return to the moon. If there is water on the moon, it will be very old, very cold, and concealed deep in the shadows of a crater at the moon's south pole. The moon's poles are the only spots in permanent sunshine (days and nights of the moon last 14 earth days), which means that the lunarnauts' solar panels could provide a permanent power supply. So they could switch the light on, but hot and cold running water is more of a challenge.

If there is water on the moon, and the evidence is not convincing, it could only be frozen slush from an ancient cometary collision. If there is water, the adventure could happen: with help from sunlight, water can be turned into food, oxygen, and rocket fuel. If there is no water, then there is a serious excess baggage cost: a 1,000-day mission by six lunarnauts would require six tonnes of oxygen, 146 tonnes of water, and 15 tonnes of food. There would also be the ensuing 12 tonnes of what mission control used to call "post-nutritive disposal substance" and 136 tonnes of urine. No wonder NASA has begun talks with 13 other space agencies. The great adventure will certainly unfold, but don't hold your breath. —

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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