KOZHIKODE: The victory of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate, George M. Thomas, in the by-election to the Thiruvambadi Assembly seat, though only by a narrow margin of 246 votes, has come as a shot in the arm for the six-month-old LDF Government.

This is because the victory reaffirms the strong political support the LDF continues to enjoy even in constituencies that were once United Democratic Front (UDF) strongholds.

This was the first electoral test for the LDF after it came to power in the Assembly elections in May this year. While LDF campaign managers are in a joyful mood, the poll result has quite understandably dampened the spirits of the United Democratic Front (UDF) camp.

Since Thiruvambadi had been one of UDF's strongholds until the Assembly held in May, when LDF candidate Mathai Chacko pulled off an upset win, UDF campaign managers had gone all out to win this by-election.

UDF leaders had hoped that the high polling percentage would tilt the electoral balance in their favour.

The counting of votes produced a lot of excitement as leads kept changing towards the end of the counting process.

It reached its peak when votes were counted in Tamarassery panchayat as the UDF appeared to be rapidly wiping out the lead the LDF had taken in other panchayats.

It is true that V.M. Ummer Master lost by the lowest margins in the electoral history of the constituency since its formation in 1977. But for the UDF in general and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in particular, the verdict has come as a setback to efforts to shake off the dampening effects of the drubbing in the Assembly elections in May this year. In that elections, the LDF had won 98 seats while UDF could win only in 42.

While CPI(M) Kozhikode secretary T.P. Ramakrishnan, MLA, hailed the victory of party nominee George M. Thomas as a reaffirmation of people's support to the LDF Government, UDF campaign managers have chosen to play down the election outcome.

UDF convener in Kozhikode and IUML leader P.K.K. Bava said the message for LDF from the electorate in Thiruvambadi was that "the enlightened voters of this State would not allow CPI(M) to transform Kerala into West Bengal. This is clear from the fact that in spite of joining hands with religious groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and PDF and misusing Government machinery it could win only by 246 votes."

"What LDF has achieved is not a respectable victory," Mr Bava said. "It is nothing more than a technical victory," said Moideen, a senior Congress leader in Kozhikode.

By hindsight, it is also clear that the support extended to the LDF by the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and smaller outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islami and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in Thiruvambadi did contribute to its victory. Senior LDF leaders, including CPI(M) State secretary Pinarai Vijayan and Mr. T.P. Ramakrishnan have openly acknowledged NCP's role. The CPI leadership maintains that the contributions of K. Karunakaran and his supporters, now in the NCP, were of no consequence.

It is also quite clear that the three Independent candidates in the fray having names similar to those of the candidates fielded by the LDF and the UDF also played a critical role.

Independent candidate Ummer Master polled 1522 votes and Independent candidate V.P. Ummer 422. Another Independent George Thomas M., whose name is strikingly similar to that of CPI(M) candidate George M. Thomas Mekkanttukunnel, polled 971 votes. It would be unrealistic to ignore their role while analysing the result of the poll in which the victory was just 246 votes away.

In the final analysis, the by-election strengthens the LDF's claims that it had been able to make inroads into minority vote banks.

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