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Adapting to climate change

Encouraged by a growing scientific consensus, the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Nairobi looked beyond the goal of stabilising carbon emissions by mid-century and took up the challenge of adaptation to global warming. The quest for clean, low-emission technologies for the future is of paramount importance — but humankind cannot afford to put off the massive task of devising ways of adapting to an altered climate. Changes in climate will affect agriculture, fisheries, water sources, wetlands, and biodiversity-rich ecosystems. The Nairobi conference did well to address this challenge and formalise funding instruments that developing countries can use to cushion vulnerable communities. These are the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto protocol; and the Special Climate Change Fund. Institutional structures need to be devised to manage such welfare funds at the international, national, and community levels. New evidence on global warming underscores the importance of speedy action. Researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Indian Institute of Science have, using daily rainfall data for monsoons and warming patterns, discovered that the frequency and intensity of heavy rain increased — and the frequency of light to moderate rain decreased — in Central India during the second half of the 20th century. The grim forecast is that these trends will get reinforced, with profound socio-economic implications for both town and countryside.

The impact of climate change on food productivity is a critical area that calls for detailed study. Modelling studies on India's agriculture yields — done by scientists at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom to assess vulnerability to temperature changes — indicate that one sample, the groundnut crop, is sensitive to thresholds above 34 degrees Celsius. The projections are partly based on offline research that used simulated data. Scientists will need detailed crop yield data at various temperature thresholds to prepare adaptation plans for agriculture. This is a research area that warrants top priority. India may not be under any obligation, under the Kyoto Protocol, to reduce its carbon emissions until 2012, but it has the opportunity to raise the energy efficiency of its economy much earlier. The Special Climate Change Fund offers help for agriculture, energy savings and efficiency, renewable energy, and better technologies for transport and industries. Forest preservation and the management of methane-generating waste are also covered. Successful adaptation to climate change will depend on how well national policies are able to exploit global mechanisms.

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