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Testing times for Somalia

The transitional government of Somalia, which took control of the capital Mogadishu on December 29, has its work cut out as it tries to consolidate its position. With the disintegration of the military forces that fought for the Council of Islamic Courts, the government faces no organised opposition. However, Somalia is a patchwork of tribes, clans, and sub-clans that have fought one another for 15 years. From the ouster of the dictator Mohammed Siad Barre in 1991 until the Islamists captured Mogadishu in June 2006, there was no centralised authority. The first task of the new government headed by Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi will be to re-establish an administrative structure. This cannot be done easily because the interests of competing clans will need to be accommodated at different levels of the administration. Mr. Gedi's task is all the more difficult because he does not command a strong army and is dependent on the Ethiopian forces that played a major role in driving the Islamists out of Somalia. This dependence is a big handicap for the government of a country awash with weapons. With Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, declaring that his army cannot be deployed in Somalia for an extended period of time, the African Union is trying desperately to put together a peacekeeping force. While Uganda, Nigeria, and South Africa have indicated that they are ready to supply troops, no firm commitments have been made.

The government might need a viable peacekeeping force sooner than later; the Islamists have threatened to launch a guerrilla campaign. While many of the Council's fighters seem to have returned to their families, a hard core known as the shebaab could spark off an insurgency from a territory close to the Kenyan border. The assertion by the United States that the Somali Islamists have an Al Qaeda connection might be an exaggeration. However, the Council, which comprised a network of local mosque leaders, did sweep to power in Talibanesque mode. Had the Islamists remained in control, there was the risk of Somalia becoming a base of operations for terrorist outfits. This was part of the justification cited by Addis Ababa for its intervention. The Islamists were also accused of aiding secessionists fighting to break free from Ethiopia. There might soon be a backlash against external intervention; the Somalis showed in the 1990s that they cannot easily be controlled by foreign armies. However, since tribal loyalties have traditionally been stronger than the pull of religion in Somalia, Mr. Gedi might be able to consolidate his position if he succeeds in wooing clan elders.

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