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Different strokes of the coup masters

P.S. Suryanarayana

The military rulers of Thailand, Myanmar, and Fiji have moved to further consolidate their power, with varying degrees of success.

— PHOTO: AP

Frank Bainimarama,

IN THE first week of the New Year, the military rulers in Thailand, Myanmar, and Fiji tried to reinforce their hold on power. Acting independently of each other, the three — Sonthi Boonyaratglin of Thailand, Than Shwe of Myanmar, and Josaia Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama of Fiji — sought to stay ahead of a possible democratic backlash. And, these coup masters are playing different strokes of presumptive leadership.

Thailand, Myanmar, and Fiji, no strangers to coups, are not the only countries under military rule now. But they are conspicuous in this category on the Asiatic side of the Pacific Ocean — a region of increasing importance to global affairs.

The coup masters of these countries have not so far produced the kind of impact that Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has done in the international arena. Although General Musharraf's coup was openly cited by Commodore Bainimarama as an example, when he grabbed power in Fiji last December, he is still preoccupied with shuffles at the helm, and his country does not have strategic weight in world affairs.

In Myanmar, Senior General Than Shwe, now suspected to require medical attention, refuses to set free Aung San Suu Kyi, the celebrated democracy campaigner. In this context, he is projecting his junta as an anti-terror friend of Myanmar's neighbours and the United States. His recent "India tilt," seen to balance to an extent Myanmar's sustained "China tilt," is an aspect of his efforts to stay relevant to the wider international community and remain in power. Overall, though, the `Musharraf magic' is not easy to replicate.

Not the original junta chief when the current phase of military rule began in Myanmar in 1988 as a sequel to the Ne Win dictatorship, Sr. Gen. Than Shwe started his innings at the helm in 1992 as a political figurehead. And, he knows that the subsequent consolidation of his power base at home is no insurance against political mortality.

— PHOTO Rajeev Bhatt

Than Shwe

With the U.S. now trying to persuade the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution against the Myanmar junta, a group of Nobel Peace laureates called upon the Council, in the first week of January, to take action that could hurt the regime and secure Ms. Suu Kyi's liberty. It is in this climate that he ordered the release of an estimated 50 political prisoners as part of a general amnesty to mark Myanmar's independence day on January 4. Rights groups place the number of Myanmar's political prisoners at 1,100.

Having gone too far down the road of military rule for too long, Senior General Than Shwe is clueless about how to square up his junta's survival with gestures towards the democracy campaigners. So, opting for survival as the top priority, he has already networked Myanmar with the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) as its member and also prevented it from reining him in.

So, Asean looks to India and China to force him to change course. To this extent, he may have played a tactical masterstroke for the time being.

Fiji's Commodore Bainimarama remains unhindered, for tactical reasons, by "democracy votaries" like Australia in the neighbourhood. But he has come under pressure at home from the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC), traditional powerhouse of the majority Melanesians.

So, he reinstated, in early January, the GCC's nominee as the country's President, who then made Commodore Bainimarama the Interim Prime Minister with a "mandate" to hold elections in a "conducive" environment.

Democracy, therefore, is a matter of chance in Fiji until its divided population can get its act together. For now, he has paid more attention to the domestic scene, unlike his Myanmar counterpart.

In Thailand, General Sonthi, who grabbed power last September, is keen to play the backstage manager by projecting a popular military leader of yesteryear, Surayud Chulanont, as the civilian Prime Minister.

But the New Year-eve bomb blasts in Bangkok have not only triggered a dramatic fall in General Surayud's popularity but also turned the focus on General Sonthi himself.

General Sonthi sees the hand of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, an elected leader now in exile. Mr. Thaksin refutes such theories. And, General Sonthi, a Muslim in the majority-Buddhist country, is keen to prove credibly that the Islamist insurgents of southern Thailand were not behind the Bangkok blasts.

General Sonthi has also denied any split within his junta. For him, it is the proverbial tightrope walk, with an eye on Mr. Thaksin's sympathisers, on one side, and the Islamist insurgents on the other. However, the non-partisan people as a democratic bloc may turn out to be the final arbiter.

Will General Sonthi bow to them or evolve a strategy to convince them that military rule is also an acceptable form of government?

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