The Hindu : Front Page : The process of weakening LTTE

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Sunday, Jan 21, 2007
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The process of weakening LTTE

B. Muralidhar Reddy

COLOMBO: With the fall of Vaharai to the military and the effective blockade in Batticaloa, the LTTE has lost its claim to being the "sole representative" of Tamils in Sri Lanka.

The process of weakening the Tigers, which began with the emergence of `Colonel' Karuna who severed his ties with the LTTE in 2004, has clearly intensified with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam losing control of two of its key bases — Sampur in Trincomalee in September and now Vaharai.

Notwithstanding the ability demonstrated by the Tigers to bounce back, analysts here believe, the Rajapaksa Government would be emboldened to take on the LTTE in its remaining pockets of influence in Trincomalee and Amparai in the east.

Observers, while pointing out that the Tigers had lost territory to government forces in the 1990s too, believe that there is a difference now. After all, today the LTTE boasts of being a full-fledged military organisation with its own army, navy and nascent air force.

"In the 1980s and 1990s the LTTE was considered a guerilla outfit. However, once it started to control territories in the north and the east, it was believed to be more than a hit-and-run organisation. The inability of the Tigers to hold on to their territory is a clear sign of their weakness," said one analyst.

The recent losses might compel the Tigers to return to their guerilla tactics. There are already hints from Kilinochchi that loss of territory does not signify much for the LTTE. To that extent, the burden of the Government and the military would increase.

Though Vaharai is the second instance of transfer of territory — a clear violation of the Norwegian-brokered 2002 ceasefire agreement — there is hardly a murmur from any quarter.

The Government justified the "liberation of Vaharai' and of Sampur earlier as a response to the challenge posed by the Tigers to its strategic interests and threats to civilians. The explanation appears to have been more or less accepted. It is a reflection of how irrelevant the ceasefire pact has become.

Recent events suggest that peace is a long way off. The coming days are bound to witness more violence. As things stand, there is just no meeting point between the Government and the LTTE to even contemplate a dialogue.

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