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Weakening the LTTE

Since the fall of Jaffna in 1995, the capture of the Vaharai region in the Eastern province by the Sri Lanka armed forces marks the biggest defeat for the LTTE. Vaharai has a pivotal place in the east — both militarily and politically as a gateway to the districts of Batticaloa and Amparai. This battle was tough, with 41,000 displaced stranded on the LTTE side. Any miscalculation by the Sri Lankan army could have led to disastrous consequences, given the LTTE's awful record of deploying civilians as human shields. The Sri Lankan government conducted the operation with minimum bloodshed. Little wonder that this second major instance of territorial change in the era of the Norwegian-facilitated ceasefire — driving the LTTE out of Sampur was the first — did not trigger any controversy within or outside the country. After the virtual declaration of war by Velupillai Prabakaran on November 27, 2006 and given the plight of civilians in the LTTE-held territories, Vaharai was inevitable. A determined and focussed Sri Lankan army — backed by lethal air power and exploiting the Karuna factor to deadly effect — has greatly weakened the Tigers in the Eastern province. With this, the LTTE's claim to be the `sole representative' of Sri Lankan Tamils does not have even half a leg to stand on.

The string of military successes over the past few months will embolden the Mahinda Rajapaksa government to continue chasing the Tigers out of its remaining strongholds in the east, particularly Trincomalee. This is likely to take time and the Tigers could return to their old guerrilla tactics. In pursuing its military goals, the government needs to be a lot more sensitive to the plight of civilians; according to reliable estimates, 213,000 people have been displaced in the north-east over the past six months. With supply lines for food and other essential commodities disrupted, these people desperately need humanitarian help. It is also time the Rajapaksa regime unveiled the comprehensive political package it has promised Sri Lankan Tamils. The de-merger of the north-east by Supreme Court fiat and the government's reluctance to explore the legislative route for re-enacting merger have created an uneasy political climate. Aside from weakening the LTTE militarily and politically, President Rajapaksa has been able to make major incursions into the parliamentary strength of the main opposition, the United National Party, by inducting a substantial number of its leaders into the government. Where does this leave the Memorandum of Understanding concluded with Ranil Wickremasinghe? Where does it leave the government's equation with the JVP? Sri Lanka's political situation has become more complex than ever.

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