Opinion - News Analysis   

Lessons for the Congress in Maharashtra

Kalpana Sharma

The ruling coalition must heed the message from the local elections if it wants to arrest the saffron surge.

SHOULD THE Congress-Nationalist Congress Party alliance ruling Maharashtra be worried about the evident saffron surge seen in the elections to 10 municipal corporations in the State? Will Maharashtra go the saffron way in the next Assembly elections? These are some of the questions being discussed even though last week's elections were to municipal corporations in only 10 cities and fought largely on local issues.

The Assembly elections are still two years away and one could argue that the issues that govern voter choice during them are vastly different from those in municipal polls. But in the case of Mumbai in particular, the difference is not so clear. For, the fate of the city is determined equally by the policies of the State Government and the actions, or rather inaction, of the municipal corporation. They operate at different levels but together they decide whether the city works for all its citizens or falls apart. For many in Mumbai, the city does seem to be falling apart due to the absence of effective governance at both levels.

The Mumbai results suggest that the Congress' "Mumbai to Shanghai" dream has failed to enthuse or impress people. Even its solid supporters in places such as Dharavi, where all six corporation seats were held by the Congress (the two Assembly seats and the one Parliamentary seat are also with the party) have become disillusioned. Two of those corporation seats did not return Congress candidates this time. In many other slums, where the Congress could count on block votes, people voted for the NCP, thus defeating strong Congress candidates.

Traditional voters alienated

In addition, the Congress seems to have alienated its traditional voters among both Muslims and Dalits. The follow-up to the July 2006 serial bomb blasts and the Malegaon bomb blasts, where many Muslims feel they have been targeted, and the slow response to the Khairlanji incident have played a part in this alienation. As a result, the various factions of the Republican Party of India and the Bahujan Samaj Party managed to win seats in Dalit-dominated wards while the Samajwadi Party succeeded in some of the Muslim-dominated constituencies.

Although it is clear that the absence of a pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the NCP was the main reason contributing to the good showing by the saffron alliance, that alone does not constitute an adequate explanation. Vote bank politics worked to an extent but the fact that even those who were loyal to the Congress deliberately chose to oppose it suggests a deeper sense of disillusionment with the party. In specific instances this had to do with the choice of candidates. For instance, in many of the seats reserved for women, the Congress nominated the wives of party members who had little credibility among Congress supporters. In others, it appeared the Congress had taken its support for granted. As a result, while other candidates made an effort and literally went door-to-door appealing for votes, Congress candidates were not so visible.

In addition, the Shiv Sena worked strategically until the end to consolidate its vote and ensure that its supporters came out to vote. So convinced were its detractors that it would be defeated this time that its victory in Mumbai is doubly sweet. For the party, the win has helped consolidate the leadership of executive president Uddhav Thackeray. It has also confirmed that the Hindutva line still holds considerable appeal for voters. It has reiterated the important role the ageing Bal Thackeray continues to play in determining the party's electoral fortunes. And it has demonstrated that Raj Thackeray still has some way to go before he can make a dent in the Sena strongholds. In addition, it now has the satisfaction of knowing that Narayan Rane has been ineffective in wooing away traditional Sena supporters towards the Congress.

All these factors have contributed to the confidence emanating from the Sena camp for the last two days. The question that is now being asked is whether the Sena will pursue the Hindutva line more aggressively again. Will it consolidate the Hindu vote by playing up nationalistic and sectarian sentiments?

If one reads the Sena mouthpiece Saamna, this appears to be its strategy and in typical fashion, it makes no bones about it. Now that the party is safely ensconced in the municipal corporation for the next five years, it can concentrate on using its cadre to re-build grassroots support in the city.

How the Congress will counter such a strategy is not entirely clear. At the moment, its leadership is fighting shy of facing up to the party's dismal performance. It prefers to blame its coalition partner, the NCP, rather than acknowledging that some of its policies are out of touch with the reality facing people in Mumbai and elsewhere. Two years is not a long time in electoral politics. The ruling coalition in Maharashtra needs to heed the message that these local elections have given if it wants to arrest the saffron surge.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Criminals in combat fatigues
Denying the right to choose
India and the challenge of global warming
Lessons for the Congress in Maharashtra
India must have a proactive agenda in Iran
Gravy train of big business must hit the buffers
Orange snow in Russia
Shocking
Mumbai civic polls
Beyond the briefings — check and review

Copyright © 2007, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu