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Old tensions renewed as Berlin rises again

Simon Tisdall

"Germany's leadership role in the EU is becoming more and more important."

TONY BLAIR may hang on as Britain's Prime Minister for a few more months but as an international leader he is already history. When Russia's Vladimir Putin talks European energy security or Kosovo these days, he talks to Germany, leader of the European Union and G8. When George W. Bush looks for a European partner, he increasingly looks to Chancellor Angela Merkel. These are the dog days of the Blair era. Ms. Merkel inadvertently pressed home the point on Tuesday during a Middle East peacemaking tour of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf that left British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett trailing in her wake. Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict tops Mr. Blair's legacy list of things to do. But Ms. Merkel has more to show so far for her more pragmatic, candid approach.

She personally persuaded Mr. Bush to accept the linkage between Iraq and a wider Middle East settlement — a feat that long eluded Mr. Blair. One practical result was American agreement to revive the so-called Quartet negotiating forum; it met in Washington on Friday. Tuesday was spent rallying the Arab states behind the peace process.

And avoiding the Blair mistake of being perceived as Washington's gofer, Ms. Merkel appears determined to keep lines of communication open to Damascus and Tehran.

Officials characterise Ms. Merkel's Middle East initiatives as part of a wider effort to increase EU power and influence in the world. This approach, mirroring her commitment to an EU constitution, extends to strong German backing for the United Nations plan to hand over responsibility for Kosovo to Brussels, a continuing EU commitment in Afghanistan , and a more effective common security and defence policy.

All the same, Ms. Merkel's efforts face familiar challenges from East and West. Both Russia and the U.S. want European alliances and markets yet neither relishes an over-powerful EU. As Berlin rises anew, old tensions are apparent.

According to Jorg Himmelreich of the German Marshall Fund, Germany and Europe have still not come to terms with the political implications of Russia's reviving economic power. And in other areas Russia still represented a potential threat. "Germany's leadership role in the EU is becoming more and more important because of the failings of other states," Mr. Himmelreich said. "It's not just a cyclical phenomenon. But we need joint policies towards Russia, on future EU enlargement and neighbourhood policies. We cannot do it alone."

For Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations, the main challenge lies elsewhere. "U.S.-German relations are back to normal on the surface after the Schroeder years. But on substance, I am not so sure," he said.

All Ms. Merkel's efforts to make Europe an equal partner with the U.S. could be destroyed in a moment by a U.S. military attack on Iran, Professor Sandschneider said. EU unity would also shatter.

— © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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