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Breakthrough on Baglihar?

The World Bank-appointed neutral expert, Raymond Lafitte, appears to have done a reasonably fair job of resolving the dispute over the 450 Megawatt-Baglihar project since both India and Pakistan have welcomed his report. Islamabad has reason to be satisfied since the expert has upheld three of its four objections in respect of the dam's design. India will have to reduce the freeboard (the height of the dam above the maximum storage line) to 3 metres from the 4.5 metres set in the original design; peg the pondage at 32.58 million cubic metres instead of the desired 37.5 mcm; and raise the level of the power intake turbines that control the run-off by 3 metres. These modifications are not as drastic as Pakistan would have liked. But Islamabad is apparently contemplating further action under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty only in respect of the expert's determination that the gated spillway could remain at the level of 808 metres. India will have to incur additional cost in carrying out these changes. However, New Delhi would be more than pleased at the neutral expert's endorsement of the underlying principle that it can use the waters of the three western rivers — the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab — so long as their natural flows are not impeded. The Treaty does permit India to use the flows in these rivers for power generation, domestic and non-consumptive purposes but several projects it has drawn up have been stalled on account of Pakistan's objections.

Islamabad might not give up very easily on the question of the Baglihar dam's gated spillway. As indicated by Pakistan's lack of protest at the neutral expert's finding on the matter, it cannot challenge India's right to the run-of-the-stream use of the waters of the three rivers. However, it can cause delay by raising questions on technical matters and is likely to follow such a course of action in respect of the Tulbul navigation and Kishenganga hydroelectric projects. This kind of strategy is not unusual for a lower riparian state. The Treaty has been beneficial on the whole, especially because of the flood warning system it has set in place. However, Pakistan is extremely sensitive about any construction on the Indus, the Jhelum or the Chenab since its agriculture is crucially dependent on the waters carried by these rivers. While questions of sovereign rights and prestige do inhibit India from agreeing to mediation on these riparian issues, it has a lesson to learn from the fact that a neutral expert was able to resolve most aspects of the Baglihar dispute fairly expeditiously. The time has perhaps come for New Delhi to re-examine its approach to the Tulbul and Kishenganga projects.

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