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A welcome agreement

For the third time in 13 years, the United States and North Korea have managed to reach an agreement on the broad framework of reciprocal steps they must take in order to bring about the Korean peninsula's de-nuclearisation. The "initial actions" agreed to at the fifth round of the Six-Party talks, which concluded in Beijing on Tuesday, include a commitment by Pyongyang to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility. On their part, the U.S. and the other four interlocutors must ensure the delivery of heavy fuel oil to North Korea. In the second phase of implementation, the North Koreans are to prepare a list of all existing nuclear facilities as a prelude to their "disablement." In return, the compensatory fuel oil shipments will reach one million tonnes. The U.S. has also undertaken to expedite the process of establishing full diplomatic ties with the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK), and lifting all trading and financial sanctions. Much of this is a replay of the terms of the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, but with one crucial difference: Thanks to the folly of the Bush administration in pushing Pyongyang to the wall, the DPRK is today a proven nuclear weapons state, having tested an atomic device in October last year. It is significant that the Beijing agreement is silent about the disposition of North Korea's existing nuclear arsenal or weapons-grade plutonium stockpile.

There is another omission too: the long-term energy package that Pyongyang feels it is entitled to in exchange for the permanent abandonment of its nuclear facilities. Under the terms of the 1994 agreement, the DPRK had agreed to trade its graphite-moderated reactors for oil shipments as well as a "proliferation-resistant" light-water reactor to be constructed by the multinational Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). Unfortunately, the Bush administration's `axis of evil' approach to North Korea effectively shut down KEDO. Only if a stable and safe long-term source of energy is provided for the Kim Jong Il regime will it feel safe abandoning all its nuclear facilities. Perhaps this is the reason the DPRK's official Korea Central News Agency has spoken of Pyongyang agreeing only to a "temporary suspension of the operation of its nuclear facilities." While differing interpretations of language and sequencing will pose a challenge to the successful implementation of the agreement, these are unlikely to be fatal. If implemented sincerely, the February 14 agreement offers the Korean peninsula its best chance of putting the past 65 years of conflict and tension behind it. The U.S. must make sure it does not undermine this finely wrought compromise by missteps and provocations of the kind it has resorted to earlier.

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