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France awaits a presidential election

Vaiju Naravane

Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal are the frontrunners but a third candidate could yet emerge. For now, with eight opinion polls published each week, the country's political pundits are thoroughly confused.

UNTIL A couple of weeks ago, the media in France had it all sewn up and decided — the second round of the French presidential campaign on May 6 would be a straight fight between the conservatives and the socialists, between Nicolas Sarkozy, the 51-year-old hard-line Interior Minister and the telegenic socialist, Segolene Royal, the first woman to seriously set her cap for the highest office in the land. But they are not so sure anymore. Polls indicate that something else, entirely more interesting, might be brewing: the emergence of a "third man" who would upset the applecart by beating one of the two favourites in the first round.

Who will that be? Two men are currently vying for the third place — the extreme right-wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, president of the anti-immigrant National Front, and the centrist Francois Bayrou, who heads the centrist UDF (Union for French Democracy).

The latest polls indicate that while Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Royal continue to be in the lead, Mr. Bayrou has sneaked up from behind to touch 16 per cent, while Mr. Le Pen has consistently scored over 13 per cent, with pollsters warning that his real support base could be much higher since die-hard National Front voters tend to lie about their real intentions. With eight opinion polls published each week, the country's political pundits are by now thoroughly confused, not to speak of voters trying to wade through a mass of often conflicting predictions and suppositions.

Polling institutes have been predicting completely unrealistic first round scenarios that include more than 20 would-be candidates without knowing if all of them will finally be placed on the ballot. French electoral law demands that a candidate obtain a minimum of 500 signatures from elected officials to get on the voting list. While this condition does not pose a problem to mainstream parties and big players, those on the fringes find it hard going. Even Mr. Le Pen has not yet obtained the required 500 signatures. Others who are struggling include the conservative independent Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the Euro-sceptic and anti-Islamic Philippe de Villiers, and the anti-globalist far left candidate Jose Bove.

The week of February 12 was marked by headlines screaming out Mr. Sarkozy's almost certain victory — 55-45 in the second round and 33-27 in the first round. Just a day earlier, after weeks of grassroots "listening," Ms. Royal had placed before the French her final electoral programme made up of 100 proposals that extended from increasing the minimum wage to 1500 euros a month from the current 900-plus to additional taxes on companies that choose to give larger dividends rather than reinvesting profits in R&D. Her long awaited programme had fallen flat and her ratings plummeted.

But then on February 19, Ms. Royal garnered a record TV audience in a programme called "I Have a Question to Ask You." She came across as compassionate and human, firm but just. And her ratings soared. Mr. Sarkozy had fallen five points to a mere 28 per cent while she had risen to the giddy heights of 29 per cent.

The problem was that in between the two polls, another more controversial one showed Mr. Bayrou, the probable third man, winning the second round "whichever opponent he faced." The question that arises of course is: does he stand a realistic chance of clearing the first hurdle?

When Ms. Royal's star seemed on the wane, Mr. Bayrou's rise — he has seduced socialist voters who find Ms. Royal too "vague and unrealistic" — was predictable. But what happens next, now that she has made something of a comeback? The first round is supposed to allow people to vote for the candidate of their choice. The second round asks voters to choose their larger political family. The last election of 2002 taught Leftist voters a lesson. The Left was so fragmented in the first round that Lionel Jospin, the socialist candidate, was eliminated by Mr. Le Pen. Will the splitting of the Left vote benefit Mr. Bayrou or Mr. Le Pen?

Says militant left-winger Janine Krause: "We appear to be falling into the same trap now. There are at least six left-wing candidates ranging from the ultra-left to the socialist and this will reduce Segolene's chances of making it into the second round. Let us not forget that despite all the talk of a Left-Right divide, France is a deeply conservative country and the combined Left does not add up to over 50 per cent; which is why we need a candidate with a wider appeal, namely Segolene. All these polls have left me utterly confused. I know that as a left-winger I shall vote against Sarkozy in the second round. If it is a Bayrou-Sarko final I'll vote for the centrist. I shall hold my nose doing it, but I'll do it. A Le Pen- Sarko final would be calamitous and I wonder if I will be able to bring myself to vote at all, since I find both men dangerous."

Blaming the polling institutes for making confusion worse confounded, Socialist MP Jean-Christophe Cambadelis said: "It is bad enough that a poll conducted on a Saturday [before Ms. Royal's February 19 TV appearance] is published on the following Tuesday to make it appear as if her ratings continue to fall. But it is grotesque to suggest Bayrou will win in the second round when it is patently evident he won't get that far."

An increasing number of questions are being raised about the dates on which the polls are conducted and when they are published. France's audio-visual authority (CSA) has repeatedly warned that several TV channels are guilty of favouring "a particular candidate." Although the CSA does not specifically name any channel, it is not difficult to guess who is getting the most favoured treatment. All major publications and TV channels in France (barring public service broadcasting) are in private hands and industry as a whole (including several media groups) is openly backing Mr. Sarkozy, universally seen as being more pro-free market. Thus the aviation group Dassault controls the influential conservative daily Le Figaro, worldwide construction group Bouygues owns TF1 and all its subsidiaries, while the Lagardere (arms, publishing) empire owns newsmagazines, radio and TV stations. Their owners are all openly supporting Mr. Sarkozy.

`Definite Bayrou factor'

But Jean Marc Lech, Director of the IPSOS polling institute, puts up a vigorous defence of his profession. "We carry out the surveys for our clients — they could be political parties, media groups, whoever, using the most rigorous methods. Media groups could manipulate their effect by delaying the date of publication. But that has nothing to do with the polls themselves. Why poll people on a possible second round featuring Mr. Bayrou? Because there is a definite Bayrou factor and he is riding an unusual wave of popularity. Will he emerge as the third man? It is difficult to say. Both he and Le Pen are fighting for third place. One thing is certain: Mr. Le Pen is sure of his voters while Bayrou's solid vote base is small. His 16 per cent is therefore volatile. He has taken a few voters from Mr. Sarkozy but a great deal from Ms. Royal. But if these two candidates are seen as more convincing over the next eight weeks of campaigning, they could volatilise. So nothing is played out yet."

Mr. Bayrou has denigrated the Parisian political and media cliques that set the tone saying, "I am grateful it is all of France, not just Paris that is going to vote." He has pitched his campaign so that it carries more appeal for the provinces and is preaching austerity and practical common sense. His recent rise in popularity has led him to announce that he would be in favour of a large broad-based coalition to govern France "taking the best" the country had to offer. His rise in the polls has sent alarm bells ringing through the socialist and conservative camps with both Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Royal launching barbed attacks against him. "He has always voted Right and that is what he will continue to do," warned Ms. Royal. While Mr. Sarkozy jeered: "His MPs were elected with our support. Without us he is nowhere."

But Mr. Bayrou displaying a quiet confidence said: "The French are looking for a candidate offering a different approach who will force the two ever-fighting parties to work together instead of destroying each other." Has the Left-Right divide that has so marked French politics eroded so far as to permit a strong centre to emerge? April 22 will shed some light on that controversial question.

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