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De-escalate the Iran crisis

With the expiry on Wednesday of the 60-day deadline for Iran to suspend its fuel cycle operations, the crisis over that country's peaceful nuclear energy programme is all set to escalate. In December 2006, the United States and its allies succeeded in getting the United Nations Security Council to pass Resolution 1737 imposing limited sanctions on Iran's fuel cycle programme. That resolution, adopted under Article 41 of Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, did not make a determination that Iran's nuclear programme was a threat to international peace and security but threatened unspecified further measures in the event that Tehran failed to comply with the resolution by February 21. As a first step, the International Atomic Energy Agency is likely to announce the suspension of a number of technical cooperation agreements with Iran. More ominously, Washington is pressing for a tightening of international sanctions. Some reports indicate the U.S. is looking for a ban on international travel by senior Iranian officials, a ban on flights to Iran as well as an end to high-level contacts with the Iranian leadership. Given the difficulty it experienced in bringing Moscow and Beijing on board last December, the Bush administration has opened a parallel track of unilateral sanctions and is arm-twisting other countries into curtailing trade-related financial transactions with Iran. Japan has already fallen in line; Europe is feeling the heat; and India has been told what is expected of it.

When the IAEA board voted to send the Iran file to the UNSC last year, it was clear that step would lead to confrontation. Iran regards the demand for suspension as an infringement of its legitimate rights as a non-nuclear weapon state member of the NPT. It `voluntarily' and `temporarily' suspended its enrichment programme in the past but is unwilling to do so again for two reasons. First, suspension is being demanded as a precondition for dialogue. Secondly, the U.S. and its European allies want Iran to forgo enrichment altogether. Both issues can be resolved with a little flexibility and foresight on the part of the international community, provided Washington is willing to allow diplomacy to succeed. A new dialogue is needed urgently to establish a basis for the temporary suspension of enrichment as well as U.N. sanctions. In exchange for Iran's renewed adherence to the Additional Protocol, the IAEA must be asked to complete its verification of Iran's nuclear programme and certify the absence of undeclared nuclear activities within a concrete time frame. Only this approach — and not further sanctions and endless verification — can yield an amicable, peaceful solution.

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