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Travel by sea also aggravates global warming

John Vidal

Emissions from shipping are more than double those of aviation, say reports

London: Carbon dioxide emissions from shipping are double those of aviation and increasing at an alarming rate, which will have a serious impact on global warming, according to research by the industry and European academics.

Separate studies suggest that maritime carbon dioxide emissions are not only higher than previously thought, but could rise by as much as 75 per cent in the next 15 to 20 years if world trade continues to grow and no action is taken. The figures from the oil giant British Petroleum (BP), which owns 50 tankers, and researchers at the Institute for Physics and Atmosphere in Wessling, Germany reveal that annual emissions from shipping range between 600 million and 800 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, or up to 5 per cent of the global total. This is nearly double Britain's total emissions and more than all African countries combined.

Not covered by treaty

Carbon dioxide emissions from ships do not come under the Kyoto agreement or any proposed European legislation and few studies have been made of them, even though they are set to increase.

Aviation carbon dioxide emissions, estimated to be about 2 per cent of the global total, have been at the forefront of the climate change debate because of the sharp increase in cheap flights, whereas shipping emissions have risen nearly as fast in the past 20 years but have been ignored by Governments and environmental groups. Shipping is responsible for transporting 90 per cent of world trade which has doubled in 25 years.

Donald Gregory, director of environment at BP Marine, said this week that BP estimates that the global fleet of 70,000 ships uses approximately 200 million tonnes of fuel a year and this is expected to grow to 350 million tonnes a year by 2020. ``We estimate carbon dioxide emissions from shipping to be 4 per cent of the global total. Ships are getting bigger and every shipyard in the world has a full order book. There are about 20,000 new ships on order,'' he said.

The estimate supports other academic studies which, until now, have been dismissed as ``extreme'', because the industry fears that emission regulations will forced on it if it is not seen to be addressing the issue. ``The International Maritime Organisation [IMO] needs to come up with an emissions strategy, or it will be down to us,'' said Mr Gregory. ``Aviation is in the firing line now but shipping needs to take responsibility. There will be increasing pressure to do something.''

Veronika Eyring, a researcher at the Institute of Physics and Atmosphere, calculates that the global fleet used 280 million tonnes of fuel in 2001 and that could reach 400 million tonnes by 2020.

``People are becoming more aware of the shipping emissions problem, but there is still uncertainty as to the exact amount of fuel being used,'' she said. An IMO study of greenhouse gas emissions has estimated that emissions from the global fleet would increase dramatically in the next 20 years as globalisation leads to increased demand for bigger, faster ships. Without action, the IMO predicts that by 2020, emissions from ships would increase up to 72 per cent.

- Guardian Newspapers Limited 2007

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