Opinion - News Analysis   

India and Iran: crunch time ahead

Amit Baruah

On the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, Washington has stated its position bluntly to New Delhi. It is time India did the same.

ON THE proposed Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, the United States has dropped all pretence at nicety. American Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, during his visit to India, bluntly warned New Delhi to shelve plans to participate in the project. Mr. Bodman was direct and up front about his "concerns." His remarks can't really be termed diplomatic or nuanced; he appeared to be reading the riot act to India.

First, in an interview to Dow Jones in New Delhi, Mr. Bodman said: "During my trip I have made it clear at the highest levels of the Indian Government that the United States opposes the development of the Iranian pipeline to India." "We believe that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and anything that will support that endeavour is something that we oppose," he added.

And, then, in Mumbai, in the presence of Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar, Mr. Bodman declared that Washington needed to "stop" the IPI gas pipeline. "There had been talks among Iran, India and other countries about finding ways of developing Iran's oil and gas assets and if that is allowed to go forward, in our judgment, this will contribute to the development of nuclear weapons."

It's interesting that Mr. Bodman, just after his public stage appearance with Mr. Kakodkar, stated that the pipeline needed to be stopped. At the same time, he said the U.S. continued to "work with the Indian Government to finalise the civilian nuclear deal and these two concerns operate in separate areas."

The Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear deal and the IPI gas pipeline have always been linked. The U.S. Ambassador to India, David Mulford, had memorably stated in January 2006 that the civilian nuclear deal would be dead in case India decided to vote against an American motion on Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The loud noises by leading U.S. lawmakers on the issue and the inclusion in the Hyde Act on civilian nuclear cooperation about securing India's cooperation in containing Iran also pointed to the links between New Delhi's approach to Tehran and the civilian nuclear deal.

Gone are the days when the Government of India would respond publicly to any kind of diplomatic over-reach on the part of visitors, especially those from Washington. Sovereignty and national respect operate only for those said to be living in the past; in the days when India spoke for the rights of the colonised and the voiceless in the rest of the world.

India needs Iranian gas and civilian nuclear cooperation with leading nations of the world. There is no "either or" situation here. Any Government that allows itself to be pushed around by the U.S. on ties with Iran will find itself being asked to fall in line time and again on issue after issue.

SAARC summit

As India prepares to host the 14th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in the first week of April, the Government has been pointing to the benefits of regional linkages and cooperation. The IPI pipeline is, perhaps, the one project that has the potential to change forever the mindsets of governments in South Asia given that both Pakistan and India are desperately short of gas. And, yet, despite the positive signal emanating from the visit of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee to Iran earlier this year, it's still not clear whether New Delhi is serious about participating in the project.

With the United Nations Security Council poised to strengthen sanctions against Iran for its alleged nuclear weapons programme, it is clear that crunch time for New Delhi on its relationship with Tehran is not far away.

The International Herald Tribune, in a front page story on March 22, reported that the U.S. had warned leading oil companies as well as the governments of China, India, Pakistan, and Malaysia that sanctions were possible if they pursued energy deals with Iran.

"What we're trying to do is create multiple points of pressure on Iran in both the private and public sector," U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

By implication, these multiple points of pressure are being applied on the Government of India as well. Given India's silence on the issue, it's not quite clear at this stage whether the pressure is working or not.

On Iran, the U.S. has laid its cards on the table. It is time the Government of India showed the spunk to do the same.

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