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A coup master's new dilemmas

P.S. Suryanarayana

After toppling the controversial but charismatic Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's military ruler Sonthi Boonyaratglin cannot hope to avoid for long a democratic backlash.

— PHOTO: AFP

Some 2,000 Thais joined an anti-junta rally organised by members of deposed Premier Thaksin Shinawatra's political party, demanding an end to the military-installed government, in Bangkok on March 23.

THE SURVIVAL kit of a military coup master is not a branded product easily accessed in the marketplace of politics. Thailand's military ruler Sonthi Boonyaratglin, in power for six months so far, must be aware of this. However, General Sonthi has still not gone beyond saying he wants to establish "real democracy" in the place of the "dictatorial capitalism" he "ended" through his coup on September 19 last year.

On March 20, he promised "real democracy" but the pledge, with no road map for its implementation, was the easy part of his new public relations exercise. He has already enjoyed a long honeymoon as a coup master, partly by remaining largely behind the scenes and projecting the "civilian" Prime Minister, Surayud Chulanont, himself a retired general. So it was Mr. Surayud's popularity rating that tumbled after the recent bombings in Bangkok on New Year's Eve.

Having toppled a controversial but charismatic Thaksin Shinawatra, General Sonthi cannot hope to escape for long a democratic backlash. So far, he has managed to stay ahead for two reasons. First, there is as yet no sign of a rift with Thailand's revered monarch, Bhumibol Adulyadej. The king had endorsed General Sonthi's coup. Secondly, the anti-Thaksin sections still fear a possible comeback by the champion of the poor. These forces form a determined minority with the wherewithal for organised political campaigns.

It is this that General Sonthi is now trying to turn to his advantage. Corruption charges were formally brought against Mr. Thaksin's wife on March 26. The military junta — the Council for National Security (CNS) — had usurped power by accusing him of corruption, nepotism, and indifference to Thailand's national interest. Mr. Thaksin, who was at the United Nations at the time of the coup, remains in self-imposed exile. He has frequently said he will not return to the political arena.

The powerful anti-Thaksin forces are bewildered at the slow pace of the CNS in filing any case against him directly. General Sonthi has pleaded for time, saying a "fair" legal process requires foolproof charges in the first place. However, commentators such as Thitinan Pongsudhirak point out that the rule of law has often become a casualty of political crises in Thailand.

The main allegations against Mr. Thaksin relate to the tax-free gains that he "made" on the sale of Shin Corp., a firm he founded before entering politics, to Singapore's prestigious Temasek. A debate now rages in Thailand on the manner in which he passed laws to facilitate his family's financial gains under a "due process."

General Sonthi has argued that the Shin Corp. deal is proving detrimental to Thailand's national security. The allegation is that Singapore is "eavesdropping" on the telephone calls being made by CNS leaders. The Shin Corp. deal entailed the sale of Thai telecom companies with satellite assets. Singapore has maintained that "it would also have been absurd for Temasek to sully its reputation in this way."

With General Sonthi wanting to retrieve the "lost national assets" such as the satellites, the CNS has added a foreign policy dimension to its domestic dilemmas by seeking Malaysia's mediation to solve the long-running "Muslim insurgency" in southern Thailand. Malaysia is willing because of its ethnic links with the southern provinces in the majority-Buddhist Thailand. A wave of recent violence in these provinces has given the CNS a new sense of urgency. On balance, General Sonthi, a Muslim, will be judged by Thais over this issue in addition to the reason he cited for the coup.

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