Opinion - News Analysis   

Small steps on a long and bumpy road

Pallavi Aiyar

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan could go some way towards melting the ice but much follow-up work will be needed.

— PHOTO: AP

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (left) is escorted by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, in this October 8, 2006 file picture.

TREES ACROSS North East Asia have begun to blossom as winter retreats and temperatures warm up. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao who begins a landmark three-day visit to Japan on Wednesday has expressed hopes that the seasonal thaw will extend itself to warming up chilled China-Japan ties. Mr. Wen has described the visit as an "ice-melting" one, a fitting follow-up to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "ice-breaking" visit to China last October.

Mr. Wen's will be the first official visit of a top Chinese leader to Japan in almost seven years. During the visit, the Chinese Premier will hold talks with his Japanese counterpart in addition to meeting Emperor Akihito. Mr. Wen is also slated to be the first Chinese leader to deliver a speech before Japan's parliament.

Since Mr. Abe's visit to Beijing last year, Sino-Japanese ties are much improved. They have emerged from a trough that had resulted from Mr. Abe's predecessor Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to the Yasukuni shrine. During last October's summit in Beijing, China and Japan announced that they had reached an "important consensus on overcoming political obstacles that affect the development of bilateral relations." Although Mr. Abe remained non-committal regarding his own views on the Yasukuni shrine, he has so far refrained from visiting it. The shrine is a war memorial that commemorates Japanese soldiers who died in various wars but also includes 14 leaders convicted as war criminals. To China, Mr. Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni symbolised a lack of genuine atonement on the part of the Japanese for their wartime atrocities.

Bilateral tensions have obvious historical roots going back to Japan's Second World War invasion of China. But the ties between the countries should not be analysed exclusively through the prism of history. China-Japan relations in their modern dimension are, in fact, the key to the future shape of the region with implications for regional stability, security, and economic growth.

Given the tension caused by North Korea's nuclear programme, the North East Asia region is already one of the world's potential flashpoints. Acrimonious relations between China and Japan only exacerbate the already delicate balance of power in the area.

There are a number of unresolved disputes that China and Japan must tackle. Other than what China sees as Japan's failure to truly repent for its wartime crimes, the two countries are also embroiled in a dispute over gas field exploration rights in the East China Sea. Moreover, Beijing continues to oppose Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council even as Tokyo is openly against the lifting of the European Union's arms embargo against China.

On the up side, the two economies have become deeply integrated giving both a strong stake in ensuring that even when tensions begin to simmer they are not allowed to boil over. Bilateral trade in 2006 was worth a whopping $207.4 billion. Japan has also invested some $58 billion in more than 300 projects across China.

Bilateral ties are thus characterised by a duality that dictates the need for cooperation even while geopolitical rivalry and lack of mutual trust constrain this cooperation. For Beijing and Tokyo this contradiction makes for a formidable diplomatic challenge.

Since coming to power in September last year, Mr. Abe has acted to normalise relations with China. These are actions appreciated by Japan's business community but at the same time he faces pressure from conservatives who have been disappointed by his readiness for compromise with Beijing. Mr. Abe is thus keenly aware that he must not be seen as weakly capitulating to China's will either.

In alliance with the United States, Japan had been the status quo power in the region for decades. A rising China with growing clout across Asia thus does not sit comfortably with Tokyo. In response to China's courting of the Association of South East Nations (Asean) and South Asian countries, which it pursues through a judicious mix of economic incentives, Japan too has begun to develop a more robust foreign policy. This is a trend that first began to take shape under Mr. Koizumi who sent troops to Iraq and dispatched supply ships to the Indian Ocean during the war in Afghanistan in 2001.

After coming to office last September, Mr. Abe has not only reiterated Japan's commitment to its alliance with the U.S., but has sought out a new partnership with India while redoubling efforts to build stronger economic and security ties with Asean. Tokyo's signing of a security pact with Australia last month is also seen by analysts as a move aimed towards containing China, despite denials of such intent by both governments.

Mr. Abe has further pushed for faster deployment of missile defence systems in the face of North Korea's nuclear test last year and is seeking to have the pacifist Article Nine of the Japanese Constitution, which forbids the country from maintaining a standing army, revised. Tokyo also continues to publicly cast aspersions on China's military modernisation programme and its purported lack of transparency. A recent Japanese Defence Ministry report called China's increasing influence in Asia a threat to Japan's national security.

For China's part, on the one hand, it is desirous of a rapprochement with Japan to safeguard its economic interests. Regional stability is seen by China as a prerequisite for its own continued economic growth. On the other hand, historical suspicions and bitterness at Japan's invasion linger, sentiments that the authorities have not been loathe to use for their own ends. A fierce nationalism anchored in anti-Japanese feelings is known to be thought by some quarters of China's government to be a useful tool to shore up.

Moreover, China is also deeply wary of Japan's security alliance with the U.S., particularly its implications for any future war over Taiwan. Tokyo's recent announcement that a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue is a strategic issue it shares with the U.S., set off alarm bells in Beijing.

Premier Wen's visit this week is unlikely to make much headway in securing a breakthrough on any of these major points of contention. Only a week before his visit, the latest round of talks on the dispute over drilling rights in the East China Sea once again ended without result.

Last month tensions over the "history question" resurfaced when Mr. Abe claimed that no proof existed of the former Imperial Army's involvement in the forced recruitment of sex slaves during the Second World War.

During Mr. Wen's visit a joint statement between the two sides will be released that will largely focus on areas of cooperation in technology, environment, and energy. Japan is expected to agree to transfer energy saving technologies to China, which is expected to agree to a resumption of rice imports banned in 2003.

There is also a possibility that the countries may announce increased military exchanges and a regularised defence dialogue. Premier Wen signalled China's willingness to take these steps during an interview with Japanese reporters in Beijing last week.

However, all of these measures will only be small steps along what promises to continue to be a long and bumpy road to truly stable China-Japan ties. While Premier Wen's visit might well go some way towards melting the ice, much follow-up work will be needed to ensure that relations do not freeze over again.

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