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Increasing India's missile reach

Nine months after Agni-III's unsuccessful maiden flight, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has triumphed in its efforts to boost India's long-range missile capabilities. The second launch of Agni-III has been carried out relatively quickly and the missile's flight was flawless, both indications that it was only a relatively minor problem that led to failure on the first occasion. The new missile is thought to have a range of about 3,500 km, which would put the neighbourhood and beyond within its reach. Once India achieved success in 1980 with its first launch vehicle — the all-solid, four-stage SLV-3 — the road was open to building more powerful launch vehicles as well as ballistic missiles. Fourteen years later, the Indian Space Research Organisation successfully flew the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle that has one of the largest solid propellant stages in the world. In the meantime, the first stage of SLV-3 became the basis for the Agni missiles. The single-stage Agni-I with a range of about 700 km and the two-stage Agni-II capable of reaching places about 2,500 km away both use this stage. The more powerful two-stage Agni-III uses an entirely new first stage with double the diameter of the SLV-3-derived stage. The ability to make the far larger rocket stage needed for Agni-III is an impressive demonstration of DRDO's mastery of solid propulsion technology. Solid propellant missiles can be launched more quickly and with less logistical support than those using liquid propellants.

China and Pakistan too have nuclear warheads and advanced solid propellant missiles of their own. China has deployed a range of ballistic missiles, the most powerful of these being the liquid-propelled DF-5, one version of which could have a range of 13,000 km. It is thought that the country is in the process of replacing this missile with the all-solid DF-31, which would also be capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads on a single missile. There will also be a submarine-borne version of the missile, JL-2. Likewise, Pakistan has made rapid progress in acquiring the capability to build solid propellant missiles. The Ghaznavi is believed to be based on technology for the M-11 missile supplied by China. But the single-stage Shaheen-1 and the two-stage Shaheen-2 could have been developed largely indigenously. The Shaheen-2, which was first tested in 2004, has a range that is estimated to be about 1,100 km. In such a situation, while it is important to develop indigenous missile capability to deter an attack, India must not get dragged into an expensive, and in the end counter-productive, arms race with its neighbours.

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