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In Pakistan, a "deal" like no other

Nirupama Subramanian

The danger now is that the "deal"-in-the-making between President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto could result in people such as Nawaz Sharif joining the MMA against the "liberal-military" alliance.

THE WIDENING anti-government agitation in Pakistan against the abrupt removal of the Chief Justice may help Benazir Bhutto drive a hard bargain in back-channel negotiations with President Pervez Musharraf but also means she will have a tougher time justifying the reported "deal"-in-the-making to voters.

Despite a flood of denials from both camps, including one from General Musharraf, media observers have concluded that he and Ms. Bhutto, who leads the Pakistan People's Party, are working — through emissaries and perhaps even directly with each other — to give finishing touches to a political understanding in this year of presidential and parliamentary elections in Pakistan.

It is accepted that the "deal" may never be announced or acknowledged, and would even be denied, but will become self-evident in the actions of the two sides as the elections draw closer.

The Government's first discernible move was to shunt out a senior official in charge of the corruption cases against Ms. Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari, and shut down the department, even though the cases against the couple remain in the books. Reports are that the Musharraf regime will not pursue them. Initiated by the Nawaz Sharif regime, some of the cases will lapse this year under a statute of limitations.

For her part, Ms. Bhutto has been restrained in her criticism of President Musharraf, never attacking him directly even though she has been bitingly critical of the government on several issues.

In the months ahead, the understanding is expected to unfold as follows: the PPP does not oppose the President's re-election from the existing electoral college comprising the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies; the government ensures a "free and fair" election; the PPP becomes an important constituent of the next government; President Musharraf steps down as army chief.

The "deal" is Ms. Bhutto's chance to get rid of the criminal cases against her and make a political comeback. The alternative is to sit out and prepare for oblivion. General Musharraf gets his second term as President. But both are keen on covering all bases in case one ditches. General Musharraf does not want to alienate his main political ally, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid), which is worried that an arrangement with Ms. Bhutto can bring the curtains down on its show. The party is an artificial construct of the post-coup years, and depends on the presidency for its survival. The PPP leader wants to leverage the present situation to maximum advantage but is also keen not to burn her bridges entirely with the other Opposition parties.

Against this background of pulls and pushes, the two sides are said to be discussing loose ends, such as whether Ms. Bhutto, who lives in self-exile abroad, can return to contest elections, and whether President Musharraf should quit as army chief before seeking another term or after the parliamentary election.

Hussain Haqqani, a Pakistani commentator and director of Boston University's Centre for International Relations, who says his political sympathies lie with the PPP, says this does not amount to a "deal." "I do not think Ms. Bhutto will tie up with Musharraf. She will, however, take full advantage of Musharraf's current weakness to overcome the difficulties created by Musharraf and the military in her path," he said in an emailed response to The Hindu.

In return for her support to President Musharraf's re-election, Ms. Bhutto is reported to be pushing for her return to Pakistan as well as a constitutional amendment of the two-term limit for a Prime Minister (Ms. Bhutto has already served two terms).

Political risk

But at a time of unprecedented anti-Musharraf sentiment, talking to the regime is a huge political risk. Other Opposition parties have already condemned the very idea. Nawaz Sharif, deposed by President Musharraf in 1999, has said it is "treachery" even to think about it. He and Ms. Bhutto buried the hatchet to sign a "charter of democracy" last year. They are partners in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, but Mr. Sharif says the PPP will have to quit the coalition if it makes a deal with the government.

Faced with tough questions, the PPP's defence is that there is "no deal," but that it is in talks with the regime in the "larger national interest" of ensuring a free and fair election and forcing General Musharraf to step down as army chief. PPP managers say that if the cases against Ms. Bhutto get dropped, that is no favour to her — it was all a witch-hunt in the first place, there was never any evidence to support the charges, and they would have had to be closed in any event.

Speaking in London, Ms. Bhutto said the main issue before Pakistan was "the restoration of the Constitution and democracy." She is reported to have said that it was worth risking her credibility and the PPP's image to establish a "working relationship" with the military for the cause of bringing back democracy to Pakistan.

Some would further make the case that a Benazir-Musharraf alliance will prevent the current unrest from tipping over and leading to another bout of military rule under a different general. According to Mr. Haqqani, though President Musharraf is offering Ms. Bhutto only a share of power under his shadow, she will grasp the olive branch to prevent a repeat of 1969, when unable to handle protests against his rule, similar to the kind Pakistan is witnessing now, General Ayub Khan handed over power to General Yahya Khan.

But the negotiations for this "marriage of convenience" pre-date the current crisis. It is no secret that the United States and Britain have worked hard to push it since 2004 in the hope that it would help the Pakistan ruler end his political dependence on right-wing Islamists and enable him to combat religious extremism more robustly. President Musharraf would also gain wider credibility and democratic credentials, in the process making the Bush administration look less like it supports a dictator.

If this is about the larger cause of restoring democracy, rather than the narrow interests of two individuals, the main actors have yet to explain leaving Mr. Sharif out of the equation.

"The fact is that any agreement, which supports an individual or a single party without benefiting all players, will be harmful in promoting democracy in the country," said analyst Ayesha Siddiqa. The other question is: what if President Musharraf refuses to quit as army chief? According to Ms. Siddiqa, Pakistan's "parent-guardian" military will never surrender its position in power politics unless all political players cooperate to enable the strengthening of civilian institutions, which can then pave the military's return to barracks.

The danger now is that marginalised players, such as Mr. Sharif, may throw in their lot with the MMA in an anti-West alliance against a Benazir-Musharraf deal, which is already being denounced as a "pro-American" front. The "liberal-military" alliance may then end up achieving the opposite of its stated aim — strengthening the Islamists instead of weakening them.

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