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Thursday, May 03, 2007
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Travelling in U.P. at election time

Vidya Subrahmaniam

On the long road from Lucknow to Gorakhpur, it is impossible not to detect an undercurrent of support for Mayawati's party. The contest, in almost every seat in this region, is invariably in terms of "BSP versus other parties."

ON A recce in eastern Uttar Pradesh one year ago I was struck by the near-uniformity of response to Mayawati. She seemed to have leapt across the divide separating her and Mulayam Singh, catching the imagination of a cross section of people, among them a class that up until then could not condemn her enough. She bashed the forward castes, threw its members in jail, insulted the bureaucracy, lavished tax payers' money on extravagant projects, decked out in diamonds, and treated the Government as if it were her fief, ran the earlier complaints. The Mayawati of April 2006 might have been part of folklore judging by the qualities the same people counted in her: She ran a tough administration, took on the bullies and cracked down on inefficiency which was good for the people. As they say in Uttar Pradesh: "public khush thi (the public was happy)."

One year on, the encomiums are not so loud — primarily because the onset of the Assembly election has brought individual candidates into the picture. The focus is now the constituency, and in politically alive U.P., this means interminable conversations around candidates and their castes, with details of who will cut into whose vote with what effect. Add to this the presence of rebels, a mushrooming bunch of smaller parties and sundry independents, and the visiting journalist can be truly led astray.

Yet on the long road from Lucknow to Gorakhpur — through Amethi-Rae Bareli, Allahabad, Varanasi, Azamgarh, Mau, and Ghazipur — it is impossible not to detect the undercurrent of support for the Bahujan Samaj Party. The BSP is in the race in almost every seat in this region and the contest is invariably pitched in terms of "BSP versus other parties." If the pattern breaks it does so in the urban seats of Varanasi and Gorakhpur. The former has long been a Bharatiya Janata Party stronghold and the latter is home to the fiery Mahant Adityanath, BJP MP and recently in jail for allegedly fanning communal trouble in the region.

In Ghazipur's Mohammadabad, sympathy is visible for the BJP's Alka Rai, wife of the slain Krishnanand Rai. The Samajwadi Party's influence is difficult to miss in the areas around communally sensitive Mau. But, overall, it is the elephant quietly plodding its way to the finish.

Stop at a village square for tea and the chances are you will hear one of two things: "Kaante ka takkar hai (it is a fierce fight)" and "Sabhi maidan mein hai (everybody is in the race)." Ask your hosts to name the big two in the fight and the answer will be the BSP and another party. Ask them who makes the best Chief Minister, and they will say Ms. Mayawati. Ask them why and they will say nobody runs the Government like she does. Ask them if there is an issue in the election and they will say "goondagardi (rampant thuggery)." Ask them who in their opinion can end the menace, and they will say Ms. Mayawati. Quiz them on the BSP's overtures to other caste groups and they will say the experiment has made an impact, and most tellingly on Brahmins. And finally the admission: "Haan, baspa ka zor hai (Yes, there is a groundswell of support for the BSP)." Does the gathering at a tea stall make for a scientific sample? Obviously not but it can point to the larger mood, especially if the sampling is done at frequent intervals and it is a mix of social groups that you talk to.

The BSP-Brahmin connection

The task is tougher in the villages without a ready audience to take the questions. But the trek is worth the effort for the reason that villagers rarely mislead. My rough and ready findings: The Brahmin interest in the BSP is obvious. Where the BSP candidate is a Brahmin, it is a clear shift even when there is another Brahmin candidate in the fray. Where the BSP candidate is from a different caste, the Brahmin interest wanes but the other caste takes over if less noticeably.

With each day of travel, the impression gains strength and it is evident that the various bhaichara (caste amity) committees of the BSP have penetrated social blocs thus far out of bounds for the party. Indeed, the BSP's `Brahmin jodo abhiyan' may be the most talked about of its social engineering projects but less visible, and working almost silently on the ground, are a network of party commanders, each on a mission to integrate a particular caste group — `Pal bhaichara samiti,' `Rajbar bhaichara samiti,' `Nishad bhaichara samiti,' and so on.

Can vote banks constructed like this last? More importantly, is this a good thing? The BSP's opponents call its `bhai-bhai' caste experiment a "one election wonder." They also attack the party for calculatedly dragging caste to the foreground: "This can only lead to more and more caste parties." Perhaps so. In the fray for U.P.'s 403 seats in this election are 2,972 candidates from 117 parties. Another 2,275 make up the bloc of independents.

However, it is debatable whether all this is necessarily harmful as a fragmented polity is also a reflection of the aspirational mobility of previously suppressed caste groups.

Besides, consider the other pattern. A caste-based party that relies on exclusivist language to build its core vote moderates its tone as it goes along. Ms. Mayawati and Mr. Mulayam Singh are classic examples of this transformation. In the Mandal phase they divided the Hindu caste order to carve out their own distinct bases. Post-Mandal, both have reached out to other caste groups, Ms. Mayawati more successfully, to enlarge their constituencies.

At her election rallies, the BSP chief proudly enumerates the caste and denominational details of her candidates: 139 from the forward castes, 110 from the OBCs, 93 from the Scheduled Castes, and 61 Muslims. The earlier bitterness towards the manuwadi castes seems truly a thing of the past. Instead, the emphasis is on sarvajan (all caste groups) samaj. "Brahman shank bajayega, haathi aage jayega (the Brahmin will blow the conch, the elephant will advance)" sing her followers at her egging. The BSP chief is fire and thunder only when her target is Mr. Mulayam Singh. "I will send Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh to jail," she declares. This time it is a different slogan, aggressive and purposeful: "Chal goondon ki chhati par, button dabao haathi par (walk on the chests of the goondas and press the button on the elephant.)"

The slogans, the speeches, the animated chats by the roadside — for the travelling reporter there is no time like election time. It is hard work but rewarding, exciting hard work. There are pitfalls too. In Maniram in Gorakhpur, I followed Mahant Avaidyanath to his rally. The Mahant and his supporters might not have heard of the Election Commission going by the tone of his speech and their response to it. The Mahant warned his audience of a second partition if the Sachar Committee recommendations were implemented. A snap poll in the area showed huge support for the BJP candidate, Vijay Bahadur Yadav. But at the road crossing a group of young men dispelled the impression. Om Prakash, Pradhan of a large cluster of villages in the region, said he saw a strong "rujhan (current)" for the BSP though he himself was from the SP. "How can I ignore the feedback I am getting?"

BSP's strengths

Back in the hotel room, it is a different story. A major exit poll has scaled back the BSP's tally, placing it just five seats ahead of the BJP. Life for the journalist was so much easier when there was no exit poll to contend with. Cut to Lucknow's official corridors. The changed mood is evident as officials count the factors in Ms. Mayawati's favour. One, with the ECI standing guard, Dalit voters have come out in strength to vote, especially in areas where they have been traditionally denied access to the polling booth.

Two, the BSP has added votes even while consolidating its core Dalit vote. All other parties have had to protect their flanks from raiders. Three, Ms. Mayawati's rallies are huge: in Ghazipur, 50,000 people heard her. Four, in the 2002 Assembly election, the BSP won 98 seats for a vote share of 23.06 per cent. The SP won 143 seats for a vote share of 25.37 per cent. With its plus, plus (Brahmins, Nishads, Pals, and so on) votes in 2007, the BSP's vote share should touch 28 per cent. Which makes for 180 seats if not more.

Over then to May 11, the day the ballots are counted.

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