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Sunday, May 06, 2007
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All eyes on today's French election

Vaiju Naravane

Last-minute efforts to mobilise support

— PHOTO: AP

HOPING FOR A TURNAROUND: Socialist presidential candidate Segolene Royal greets supporters at her last campaign meeting in Brest, western France, on Friday.

Paris: Rightwing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have stitched up his presidential bid and appears ready to ride into victory with a solid lead of almost six points. But for a massive last-minute shift of votes in favour of Socialist Segolene Royal, he is almost certain to become France's next President when France's 44.5 million voters cast their ballots on Sunday.

Last Wednesday, Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Royal faced each other in a televised debate that lasted over two and a half hours. While initial reaction to Ms. Royal's performance was positive, polls published later showed over 55 per cent of the French were more convinced by Mr. Sarkozy's performance. Since then the gap has widened and Ms. Royal appears to be steadily losing ground.

As Ms. Royal began to lose momentum with Mr. Sarkozy improving his lead, there was gloom in the socialist camp. There are genuine fears here that the rightwing candidate's presidency will create tensions within the country, especially in relation to its large Muslim and immigrant population. Mr. Sarkozy has campaigned on a platform advocating tough policing and immigration, more discipline in public life and a return to the work ethic. He has also said he would set up a new ministry of immigration and national identity and cut taxes. In one of his speeches, he criticised the May 1968 student uprising in France saying he was going to dismantle its effects forever. That would mean pushing France's very liberal society into a disciplinary straitjacket.

In a last-minute attempt to mobilise voters to her side Ms. Royal, the first woman to have come this close to winning the French presidency, described her rival as "dangerous for civil peace". She said she had a "responsibility to issue an alert over the risks ... regarding the violence and brutality that his election will trigger across the country. Everyone knows it but no one says it. It is a kind of taboo. His candidacy is dangerous."

Several conditions

Mr. Sarkozy shot back saying: "Never in the history of the Fifth Republic have such violent and threatening comments been heard. Saying if you vote for a candidate there will be violence is simply to reject the right to democratic expression."

Several conditions will have to be met if Ms. Royal is to achieve a turnaround in the likely results at this late stage in the campaign. She could win only if all of the extreme right voters from the National Front were to abstain and if four out of every five voters (6.8 million of them) who favoured centrist candidate Francois Bayrou switched their allegiance to her. This is very unlikely since 20 of the 20 MPs who belonged to Mr. Bayrou's UDF (Union for French Democracy) are already openly supporting Mr Sarkozy.

And finally she will need every single vote from the left and the extreme left. Several hard left voters feel she has made too many overtures to the centrists and are likely to stay at home or vote blank.

A Sarkozy win is now seen as the inevitable outcome of Sunday election and political pundits have already begun predicting a massive realignment on the left with an implosion within the Socialist party in the weeks ahead.

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