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Monsoon may set in a week earlier

Special Correspondent

It is likely to hit Kerala on May 24

NEW DELHI: The much-awaited southwest monsoon could set in over Kerala a week earlier than the normal date of June 1, if one were to go by the forecast of the India Meteorological Department.

In a press release issued here on Monday, IMD said the statistical model used by it to predict the onset of monsoon has indicated that it could set in over Kerala on May 24 with a model error of plus or minus three days. [Kerala is the first point from where the monsoon enters the country].

The press release also clarified that the possible earlier onset did not mean an earlier onset over other parts of the country, especially north India and other interior parts of the country.

Also, there was no one-to-one correspondence between the monsoon onset date over Kerala and the quantum and pattern of rainfall during the four-month season, it said.

The IMD had issued a forecast on April 19 that the rainfall during the monsoon season this year for the country as a whole could be 95 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent and that stands for the time being. The agency has scheduled to come out with an update next month.

The IMD also clarified that though the long term mean date of monsoon onset over Kerala was June 1, there was a standard deviation of about one week.

During the last 50 years, the earliest monsoon onset over Kerala was on May 14, 1960 and the most delayed onset was on June 18 in 1972.

The IMD has been issuing the forecast for the monsoon onset over Kerala for the past three years. In 2005, the first year, it predicted the onset date as June 7, while the actual onset was on June 5. Last year, IMD predicted May 30 as the onset date and the onset was on May 26.

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