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Bush hits new low

Simon Tisdall

The "badness of King George" is creating a power vacuum around the White House.

AMERICAN ACCUSATIONS that European countries ganged up against the Bush administration in the Wolfowitz row hide a deeper worry: that the rapidly declining power at home of the most unpopular, least respected President since Richard Nixon is encouraging multiple challenges to U.S. authority and interests around the world.

Washington's insecurity is rooted in the collapse of George W. Bush's domestic support and an apparent failure of national confidence. The President's approval rating hit a new low of 28 per cent this month, according to a Newsweek poll. His aggregate figures have been stuck at 35 per cent or less since last autumn — far below the norm for an incumbent halfway through a second term.

The "badness of King George," as Mr. Bush's fall from imperial grace has been dubbed, is creating a power vacuum around the White House. The earliest ever start to the election campaign to replace him is now being matched, according to many commentators, by the longest ever "lame-duck" presidency.

"The country doesn't believe George Bush, it doesn't trust him, and with 19 months to go it's only going to get worse," Ed Rollins, a famed Republican strategist, told U.S. columnist Albert Hunt. "There is nothing the President can do to get his numbers back up."

The deepening gloom around Mr. Bush is largely attributed to the Iraq quagmire, though domestic policy failures and security worries also play a part.

And the depression may be catching. An AP-Ipsos poll this week found 71 per cent of Americans believe the U.S. is "on the wrong track." Only 35 per cent say the Democrat-controlled Congress, elected in November, is doing a good job (mostly because it has failed to force a change of course on Iraq).

But veteran analyst David Broder, quoting a poll for the Third Way think tank in Washington, detects a broader, more globally significant shift in public thinking. When Mr. Bush pledged in his second inaugural address to "support the growth of democratic movements in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world," the country seemed to back him, Mr Broder told The Cincinnati Post. Now most take a more chastened, pragmatic view, with 58 per cent agreeing: "It is a dangerous illusion to believe America is superior to other nations; we should not be attempting to reshape other nations in light of our values."

By a margin of almost 3-1, those questioned believed "the main goal of American foreign policy should be to protect the security of the United States and its allies, rather than the promotion of freedom and democracy," Mr. Broder said. And the same poll found a majority also opposed forcible regime change; said the terrorist threat had increased since 9/11, not decreased as Mr. Bush claims; and felt less safe since the war in Iraq.

Dented national confidence and lowered ambitions evidenced by these polls suggest a turning away from international challenges by many Americans. At the very least, a period of growing political distraction and introspection seems likely to characterise the two years until the next president is able to make his or her mark.

Any perceived U.S. inattention or weakness is certain, meanwhile, to be exploited, diplomatically or otherwise. Russia, for example, is already testing American resolve on numerous fronts, ranging from the Balkans and energy security to Iran and planned missile defences in eastern Europe.

Chance for Europe

The Bush malaise could also provide a pick-me-up for Europe, encouraging it to show a lead and push an agenda of issues such as climate change previously blocked by Mr. Bush, a senior European official said. "It's not a question of U.S. weakness," he said. "It's a question of Europe not being strong enough."

More determined European leadership would be forthcoming across the board — and rather than look for conspiracies, the Americans should welcome it, he said. And, he added, for the record: "There was no European ganging-up on Wolfowitz. Wolfowitz is the victim of himself." —

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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