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Cycles within cycles

Afghans have reason to wonder whether the International Security Assistance Force operating in their country has really come to help when the foreign soldiers have killed dozens of civilians over the past few months. The pattern is the same in almost every case. With little input from Afghan security forces that are still not fully trained, ISAF lacks precise information as it conducts its current offensive against the Taliban. Foreign troops raid villages, burst into houses, and cause offence to the cultural sensitivities of Afghans who strike back. On account of the years of war, the villagers do not lack weapons or the skill to use them. ISAF commanders then order either aerial bombardment or artillery strikes to rescue their entrapped soldiers. In these circumstances, many civilians are killed and wounded and this sets off a vicious circle. As Afghans turn hostile, the flow of information to ISAF dries up and the chances of other `mistakes' being made steadily increase. Forces fighting an insurgency cannot afford to alienate the local population, especially when the opposition is a Taliban that has shown remarkable resilience. With President Hamid Karzai's standing undermined by the civilian death count, he has condemned foreign troops on several occasions. The risk to civilians could have been substantially reduced if ISAF had more boots on the ground and did not have to resort so frequently to area-suppressing fire.

The anti-Taliban drive has once again shown the strategic blunders committed by the political leadership of the United States. Purely from a military standpoint, a far larger number of troops than those deployed would have been needed to tackle insurgents operating in rugged terrain. Failing to concentrate forces in Afghanistan and neutralise the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine, President George Bush embarked on his disastrous invasion of Iraq. The result is that there are just not enough troops to complete the job in either theatre of operations. On the other side, the Taliban have been able repeatedly to rebuild their strength with the assistance of the men who control the opium trade. In exchange for the protection the zealots offer the drug lords, they provide the money with which the Taliban recruit fighters and buy weapons. Military experts are of the opinion that the opium crop will need to be destroyed if ISAF is to achieve its goals. The problem, however, is that too many ordinary Afghans derive their livelihood from the poppy fields. If their crops are destroyed, these villagers are likely to join the ranks of the insurgents.

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