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Wounds that will fester

There was never any doubt that Al Qaeda clones would have sprouted even if Iraq had not been invaded. Terrorist groups in several countries had adopted the Osama bin Laden-designed format for ideological indoctrination, training, planning, and execution of missions without needing to be motivated by the grim news from Mesopotamia. However, it is now clear that the killing fields of Iraq have begun to produce a crop of battle-hardened extremists who are ready for duty elsewhere in the world. Scores of militants who have been fighting the United States-led occupation forces have moved with their weapons to other countries in West Asia. It is believed that men of this ilk formed the hard core of the group, Fatah al Islami, that fought the Lebanese army in the third week of May. The governments of Saudi Arabia and Jordan claim that many among the dozens arrested over the past few months on terrorism-related charges learnt their deadly trade while ostensibly participating in the insurgency. Counter-terrorism experts are of the view that this new crop of fighters could be far more dangerous than those trained in the camps run by the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine in Afghanistan. The alumni of the `Iraqi Graduate School' are better versed in the arts of urban warfare than those educated in the lower-grade Afghan academies. Baghdad and other cities provided the environment in which would-be terrorists could learn the methods of setting up safe houses and carrying out detailed surveillance.

The refugee crisis created by the occupation of Iraq, which is not likely to be resolved in the foreseeable future, could exponentially enhance the potential for terrorism. According to estimates made by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, nearly two million Iraqis have fled their country, and another 1.9 million have been internally displaced. The vast majority of those who fled Iraq have taken shelter in other countries in West Asia and North Africa. In most instances, the host governments have failed to accord refugee status to them because they feel it would have long-term implications. The UNHCR and other humanitarian institutions do not have the resources to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. At present, the refugees are trying to manage with the assistance they receive from their families and friends. Before long, many of them will run out of sources of support. The recent developments in Lebanon provide a foretaste of what could happen if the displaced are driven to desperation.

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